Managing Partner, Ampersand Investment Advisors

Rahul Singh

Managing Partner

Ampersand Investment Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have been incessantly cautioning for a corrective phase in our stock markets mainly due to excessive valuations based of unrealistic growth expectations. While we expected a correction, it came from completely unexpected quarters. The beneficiaries from the favorable macro tidings (monsoons, pay commission) in what was supposed to be a very strong 2HFY17 have suffered a setback post-demonetization. This prompts us to re-evaluate our sector and market cap preferences in this edition of the Ampersand newsletter.

We have been incessantly cautioning for a corrective phase in our stock markets mainly due to excessive valuations based of unrealistic growth expectations. While we expected a correction, it came from completely unexpected quarters. The beneficiaries from the favorable macro tidings (monsoons, pay commission) in what was supposed to be a very strong 2HFY17 have suffered a setback post-demonetization. This prompts us to re-evaluate our sector and market cap preferences in this edition of the Ampersand newsletter.

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

 Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

§  As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21 November.§  Biggest volume surges were generated by Genting Singapore PLC which traded almost 5x its average volume on Monday, and StarHub which traded 4x its average volume on Monday – then 3x its average volume on Tuesday.§  The 9 Stocks, which represent five Sectors have together averaged a 1.5% gain in the November MTD, bringing their 2016 YTD average…

§  As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21 November.§  Biggest volume surges were generated by Genting Singapore PLC which traded almost 5x its average volume on Monday, and StarHub which traded 4x its average volume on Monday – then 3x its average volume on Tuesday.§  The 9 Stocks, which represent five Sectors have together averaged a 1.5% gain in the November MTD, bringing their 2016 YTD average…

Nine STI Stocks See Volume Surge in Early Week

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and substitute the notes with new INR500 and INR2000 notes. The move has been applauded by international observers who have for years condemned India's blind eye towards its 'black economy'. However, in India, the demonetization exercise has gained little popularity as the logistical challenges in replacing the ineffectual cash is significantly disrupting…

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and substitute the notes with new INR500 and INR2000 notes. The move has been applauded by international observers who have for years condemned India's blind eye towards its 'black economy'. However, in India, the demonetization exercise has gained little popularity as the logistical challenges in replacing the ineffectual cash is significantly disrupting…

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between...

Stewart Paterson

Nine STI Stocks See Volume Surge in Early Week

§ As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and...

Manu Bhaskaran

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taking Fresh Guard - Nov 16 Newsletter

We have been incessantly cautioning for a corrective phase in our stock markets mainly due to excessive valuations based of unrealistic growth...

Ampersand Investment Advisors

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between...

Stewart Paterson

Nine STI Stocks See Volume Surge in Early Week

§ As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and...

Manu Bhaskaran

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson