Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity</li>
<li>The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.</li>
<li>In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.</li>
</ul>


Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity
The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.
In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.


What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state’s stake drops below one-third • dsm-firmenich | banks prepared to provide more debt to the buyer of the ANH unit • Heineken | operating profit (beia) shows beat thanks to more costs savings and mix effects • KPN | EUR 250m share buyback completed • Corporate agenda | week 31 – 36</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state’s stake drops below one-third • dsm-firmenich | banks prepared to provide more debt to the buyer of the ANH unit • Heineken | operating profit (beia) shows beat thanks to more costs savings and mix effects • KPN | EUR 250m share buyback completed • Corporate agenda | week 31 – 36

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 July (ABN Amro | dsm-firmenich | Heineken | KPN | Corporate calendar)

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); 
Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Heineken has lost operational control and withdrawn its staff from its facilities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (“DRC”) due to an escalating conflict.</li>
<li>The company had suspended operations in March in the cities of Goma, Bukavu, and Uvira after its breweries and depots were attacked during clashes between the army and M23 rebels.</li>
<li>As of June 12, 2025, armed groups have seized its sites in Goma and Bukavu, prompting a full withdrawal.</li>
</ul>


Heineken has lost operational control and withdrawn its staff from its facilities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (“DRC”) due to an escalating conflict.
The company had suspended operations in March in the cities of Goma, Bukavu, and Uvira after its breweries and depots were attacked during clashes between the army and M23 rebels.
As of June 12, 2025, armed groups have seized its sites in Goma and Bukavu, prompting a full withdrawal.


What's News in Amsterdam - 23 June (Heineken | Consumer Confidence)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | Vietnam’s consumption tax increases: no near-term impact expected • AMG Critical Materials | increases interest in Zinnwald Lithium to 29.6% • PostNL | House committees to meet today on which topics to declare controversial • E-commerce / E-com logistics | online spending in the Netherlands up 4% YoY in 1Q25</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | Vietnam’s consumption tax increases: no near-term impact expected • AMG Critical Materials | increases interest in Zinnwald Lithium to 29.6% • PostNL | House committees to meet today on which topics to declare controversial • E-commerce / E-com logistics | online spending in the Netherlands up 4% YoY in 1Q25

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 18 June (Heineken | AMG Critical Materials | PostNL | E-com/logistics)

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

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Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 July (ABN Amro | dsm-firmenich | Heineken | KPN | Corporate calendar)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state’s stake drops below one-third • dsm-firmenich | banks prepared to provide more debt to the buyer of the...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 23 June (Heineken | Consumer Confidence)

Heineken has lost operational control and withdrawn its staff from its facilities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (“DRC”) due to an...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 18 June (Heineken | AMG Critical Materials | PostNL | E-com/logistics)

In this edition: • Heineken | Vietnam’s consumption tax increases: no near-term impact expected • AMG Critical Materials | increases interest in...

The IDEA!

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