Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dispersion has returned across European holdcos. Vivendi moves back into dislocation, while Nordic structures remain anchored near parity, offering limited convergence and behaving as directional equity exposure.</li>
<li>Event-Driven setups dominate the opportunity set. Vivendi offers legal-driven asymmetry, while Rio provides conditional optionality on renewed strategic pressure, both requiring timing discipline rather than valuation conviction.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, discounts reflect equilibrium. GBL continues gradual compression through execution, while Porsche remains structurally wide but catalyst-free, leaving returns driven primarily by underlying asset performance.</li>
</ul>


Dispersion has returned across European holdcos. Vivendi moves back into dislocation, while Nordic structures remain anchored near parity, offering limited convergence and behaving as directional equity exposure.
Event-Driven setups dominate the opportunity set. Vivendi offers legal-driven asymmetry, while Rio provides conditional optionality on renewed strategic pressure, both requiring timing discipline rather than valuation conviction.
Elsewhere, discounts reflect equilibrium. GBL continues gradual compression through execution, while Porsche remains structurally wide but catalyst-free, leaving returns driven primarily by underlying asset performance.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Discount dispersion is widening across European holdcos: quality, fully listed structures trade near parity, while leveraged or legally encumbered vehicles remain materially wide without visible forcing mechanisms.</li>
<li>Rio’s DLC premium has reverted to ~20% after M&amp;A talks collapsed, reinforcing that structural inefficiencies compress only under live strategic pressure, not on valuation arguments alone.</li>
<li>Asymmetry now sits selectively: Vivendi retains event convexity, GBL offers gradual repair-driven compression, while Investor and Industrivärden behave as directional portfolio proxies rather than discount trades.</li>
</ul>


Discount dispersion is widening across European holdcos: quality, fully listed structures trade near parity, while leveraged or legally encumbered vehicles remain materially wide without visible forcing mechanisms.
Rio’s DLC premium has reverted to ~20% after M&amp;A talks collapsed, reinforcing that structural inefficiencies compress only under live strategic pressure, not on valuation arguments alone.
Asymmetry now sits selectively: Vivendi retains event convexity, GBL offers gradual repair-driven compression, while Investor and Industrivärden behave as directional portfolio proxies rather than discount trades.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2026 Report

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

At US$2 billion give-or-take, ThaiBev's float of 20% of its regional beer business ("BeerCo") will be the largest IPO on the Singapore Exchange in nearly a decade – that much we have all heard – but the deal will also raise the average ESG rating of SGX's listed issuers.I'm not sure what that average ESG rating is exactly, but it's definitely going up.Putting a brewery under the ESG microscope usually doesn't end well. For one thing, beer's carbon footprint is substantial, not to mention the issue of water consumption. Then, there are those two elephants in the room – alcohol, and socially-responsible investing.Somehow, despite all that, BeerCo looks relatively good under the ESG microscope.To be clear, BeerCo faces a few Social-pillar issues. Minor issues, such as the two highest per-capita alcohol consumption rates in Southeast Asia, and that whole Fifth Precept thing with Thailand's de facto religion. Plus, a host of laws to curb consumption and all of its socio-economic ills.An important distinction, however, is that those negative aspects of BeerCo's ESG story are mostly  circumstantial – i.e., external and beyond management control – whilst positive elements can be traced back to proactive Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) policies and actions.It's not perfect, but by all indications thus far, BeerCo will rank among the world's more sustainable brewery stocks, even outperforming some of the sector's big-name "sustainability leaders."

At US$2 billion give-or-take, ThaiBev's float of 20% of its regional beer business ("BeerCo") will be the largest IPO on the Singapore Exchange in nearly a decade – that much we have all heard – but the deal will also raise the average ESG rating of SGX's listed issuers.I'm not sure what that average ESG rating is exactly, but it's definitely going up.Putting a brewery under the ESG microscope usually doesn't end well. For one thing, beer's carbon footprint is substantial, not to mention the issue of water consumption. Then, there are those two elephants in the room – alcohol, and socially-responsible investing.Somehow, despite all that, BeerCo looks relatively good under the ESG microscope.To be clear, BeerCo faces a few Social-pillar issues. Minor issues, such as the two highest per-capita alcohol consumption rates in Southeast Asia, and that whole Fifth Precept thing with Thailand's de facto religion. Plus, a host of laws to curb consumption and all of its socio-economic ills.An important distinction, however, is that those negative aspects of BeerCo's ESG story are mostly  circumstantial – i.e., external and beyond management control – whilst positive elements can be traced back to proactive Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) policies and actions.It's not perfect, but by all indications thus far, BeerCo will rank among the world's more sustainable brewery stocks, even outperforming some of the sector's big-name "sustainability leaders."

ThaiBev BeerCo ESG Analysis: Among the World's More Sustainable Brewers Despite Social-Pillar Issues

<ul>
<li>M&amp;A reactivates DLC risk: Rio–Glencore talks triggered rare compression in the Rio Ltd/Plc spread, highlighting how strategic actions — not activism — force re-pricing of dual-listed structures.</li>
<li>Structure over quality: Holdco and DLC discounts tightened only where governance or M&amp;A pressure emerged; high-quality portfolios alone proved insufficient to drive convergence across 2025.</li>
<li>Event-Driven optionality remains: Wide discounts persist where enforcement is delayed, but asymmetric upside remains where regulators or corporates retain credible power to force structural outcomes.</li>
</ul>


M&amp;A reactivates DLC risk: Rio–Glencore talks triggered rare compression in the Rio Ltd/Plc spread, highlighting how strategic actions — not activism — force re-pricing of dual-listed structures.
Structure over quality: Holdco and DLC discounts tightened only where governance or M&amp;A pressure emerged; high-quality portfolios alone proved insufficient to drive convergence across 2025.
Event-Driven optionality remains: Wide discounts persist where enforcement is delayed, but asymmetric upside remains where regulators or corporates retain credible power to force structural outcomes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

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Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2026 Report

Dispersion returns across European holdcos: Vivendi back to dislocation, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most structures remain anchored....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2026 Report

European holdco discounts are diverging: quality structures trade near parity, while leveraged or legally encumbered names remain wide. Asymmetry...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report

Rio’s Glencore talks finally put real pressure on the dual-listed structure, driving rare spread compression. Across holdcos, January confirms the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2026 Report

Dispersion returns across European holdcos: Vivendi back to dislocation, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most structures remain anchored....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2026 Report

European holdco discounts are diverging: quality structures trade near parity, while leveraged or legally encumbered names remain wide. Asymmetry...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ThaiBev BeerCo ESG Analysis: Among the World's More Sustainable Brewers Despite Social-Pillar Issues

Putting a brewery under the ESG microscope usually doesn’t end well. ThaiBev's BeerCo is an exception, ranking among the world's more sustainable...

Kyle Rudden

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report

Rio’s Glencore talks finally put real pressure on the dual-listed structure, driving rare spread compression. Across holdcos, January confirms the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar