European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed, reflecting governance, capital allocation and catalyst visibility rather than asset quality. Structural valuation gaps continue to define relative-value opportunities across the sector.</li>
<li>Vivendi's Court of Appeal ruling removed mandatory bid expectations, widening its discount sharply, while GBL's strategic transformation and Nordic governance models continue supporting structurally tighter valuations.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto's DLC premium remains elevated, Porsche SE still trades below historical valuation despite improving fundamentals, and Heineken Holding's discount remains unusually tight versus long-term averages.</li>
</ul>


European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed, reflecting governance, capital allocation and catalyst visibility rather than asset quality. Structural valuation gaps continue to define relative-value opportunities across the sector.
Vivendi's Court of Appeal ruling removed mandatory bid expectations, widening its discount sharply, while GBL's strategic transformation and Nordic governance models continue supporting structurally tighter valuations.
Rio Tinto's DLC premium remains elevated, Porsche SE still trades below historical valuation despite improving fundamentals, and Heineken Holding's discount remains unusually tight versus long-term averages.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2026 Report

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Amsterdam Commodities Nv / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | additional thoughts on a potential acquisition of Haacht • Acomo | closes the acquisition of Citromil in Spain • ForFarmers | temporarily adopting a neutral stance ahead of 1H26 results • Allegro | AI, deeper platform integration and partnerships core elements of its strategy</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | additional thoughts on a potential acquisition of Haacht • Acomo | closes the acquisition of Citromil in Spain • ForFarmers | temporarily adopting a neutral stance ahead of 1H26 results • Allegro | AI, deeper platform integration and partnerships core elements of its strategy

What's News in Amsterdam - 17 July (Heineken | Acomo | ForFarmers | Allegro)

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

At US$2 billion give-or-take, ThaiBev's float of 20% of its regional beer business ("BeerCo") will be the largest IPO on the Singapore Exchange in nearly a decade – that much we have all heard – but the deal will also raise the average ESG rating of SGX's listed issuers.I'm not sure what that average ESG rating is exactly, but it's definitely going up.Putting a brewery under the ESG microscope usually doesn't end well. For one thing, beer's carbon footprint is substantial, not to mention the issue of water consumption. Then, there are those two elephants in the room – alcohol, and socially-responsible investing.Somehow, despite all that, BeerCo looks relatively good under the ESG microscope.To be clear, BeerCo faces a few Social-pillar issues. Minor issues, such as the two highest per-capita alcohol consumption rates in Southeast Asia, and that whole Fifth Precept thing with Thailand's de facto religion. Plus, a host of laws to curb consumption and all of its socio-economic ills.An important distinction, however, is that those negative aspects of BeerCo's ESG story are mostly  circumstantial – i.e., external and beyond management control – whilst positive elements can be traced back to proactive Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) policies and actions.It's not perfect, but by all indications thus far, BeerCo will rank among the world's more sustainable brewery stocks, even outperforming some of the sector's big-name "sustainability leaders."

At US$2 billion give-or-take, ThaiBev's float of 20% of its regional beer business ("BeerCo") will be the largest IPO on the Singapore Exchange in nearly a decade – that much we have all heard – but the deal will also raise the average ESG rating of SGX's listed issuers.I'm not sure what that average ESG rating is exactly, but it's definitely going up.Putting a brewery under the ESG microscope usually doesn't end well. For one thing, beer's carbon footprint is substantial, not to mention the issue of water consumption. Then, there are those two elephants in the room – alcohol, and socially-responsible investing.Somehow, despite all that, BeerCo looks relatively good under the ESG microscope.To be clear, BeerCo faces a few Social-pillar issues. Minor issues, such as the two highest per-capita alcohol consumption rates in Southeast Asia, and that whole Fifth Precept thing with Thailand's de facto religion. Plus, a host of laws to curb consumption and all of its socio-economic ills.An important distinction, however, is that those negative aspects of BeerCo's ESG story are mostly  circumstantial – i.e., external and beyond management control – whilst positive elements can be traced back to proactive Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) policies and actions.It's not perfect, but by all indications thus far, BeerCo will rank among the world's more sustainable brewery stocks, even outperforming some of the sector's big-name "sustainability leaders."

ThaiBev BeerCo ESG Analysis: Among the World's More Sustainable Brewers Despite Social-Pillar Issues

<ul>
<li>Discount dispersion remains structural rather than market-driven. Governance, balance-sheet quality and catalyst visibility continue to explain valuation gaps across European holding companies better than underlying portfolio performance.</li>
<li>GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred opportunities. GBL offers long-term NAV compounding after recent widening, while Vivendi still trades at a substantial discount despite improving strategic optionality.</li>
<li>Nordic investment companies remain fully valued. Investor AB trades around NAV and Industrivärden at a premium, while Porsche SE and Rio continue reflecting persistent structural valuation anomalies.</li>
</ul>


Discount dispersion remains structural rather than market-driven. Governance, balance-sheet quality and catalyst visibility continue to explain valuation gaps across European holding companies better than underlying portfolio performance.
GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred opportunities. GBL offers long-term NAV compounding after recent widening, while Vivendi still trades at a substantial discount despite improving strategic optionality.
Nordic investment companies remain fully valued. Investor AB trades around NAV and Industrivärden at a premium, while Porsche SE and Rio continue reflecting persistent structural valuation anomalies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

<ul><li>In this edition: • Adyen | responds to analyst report following sharp share price drop • Heineken | Artisan Partners and First Eagle Investments prefer outsider as new CEO • ING Group | pioneering AI in Dutch mortgage underwriting • ING Group | appoints Andrea Cesaroni as Chief Risk Officer • KPN | Revolut to enter the Dutch market as a MVNO • M&A regulation | Dutch government proposes to expand foreign investment screening regime</li></ul>

In this edition: • Adyen | responds to analyst report following sharp share price drop • Heineken | Artisan Partners and First Eagle Investments prefer outsider as new CEO • ING Group | pioneering AI in Dutch mortgage underwriting • ING Group | appoints Andrea Cesaroni as Chief Risk Officer • KPN | Revolut to enter the Dutch market as a MVNO • M&A regulation | Dutch government proposes to expand foreign investment screening regime

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 June (Adyen | Heineken | ING | KPN | M&A regulation)

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2026 Report

European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed. Vivendi loses its legal catalyst, GBL continues its strategic re-rating, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 17 July (Heineken | Acomo | ForFarmers | Allegro)

In this edition: • Heineken | additional thoughts on a potential acquisition of Haacht • Acomo | closes the acquisition of Citromil in...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

June reinforced a stock-pickers' market for holding companies. GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred ideas, while Nordic investment companies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 June (Adyen | Heineken | ING | KPN | M&A regulation)

In this edition: • Adyen | responds to analyst report following sharp share price drop • Heineken | Artisan Partners and First Eagle Investments...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2026 Report

European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed. Vivendi loses its legal catalyst, GBL continues its strategic re-rating, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 17 July (Heineken | Acomo | ForFarmers | Allegro)

In this edition: • Heineken | additional thoughts on a potential acquisition of Haacht • Acomo | closes the acquisition of Citromil in...

The IDEA!

ThaiBev BeerCo ESG Analysis: Among the World's More Sustainable Brewers Despite Social-Pillar Issues

Putting a brewery under the ESG microscope usually doesn’t end well. ThaiBev's BeerCo is an exception, ranking among the world's more sustainable...

Kyle Rudden

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

June reinforced a stock-pickers' market for holding companies. GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred ideas, while Nordic investment companies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 June (Adyen | Heineken | ING | KPN | M&A regulation)

In this edition: • Adyen | responds to analyst report following sharp share price drop • Heineken | Artisan Partners and First Eagle Investments...

The IDEA!