Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

What is the key question? Are we at the start of another 12-year bull market in value stocks? That's the duration of the last period when the value style of investing out performed growth in the Asia Pacific region.What is the evidence? Over the last 12-months, the balance between growth and value reversed the dominance that growth has held for much of the last 10-years. Whilst in Q1 2021, we remained cautious about a full declaration that the trend is reversing, we feel that the process is indeed underway and that a multi-year reversal is in progress. This is not just positive for value investors, but increasingly so for Small-Mid Cap investors.Why read this screening note? Q1 2021’s screen performance trumped the market delivering relative outperformance of 26.2%. Of the 27 names presented, 18 stocks delivered positive share price performance with an average increase of 21%, whilst the remaining 9 stocks declined 9.4 %. What is presented? 56 names appear in our Q3 2021 Asia Pacific list providing plenty of opportunity for investors. The average EV/FCF multiple of 5.2x in Q3 2021 compared to 6.3x in Q1 2021 and 5.6x in Q2 2020. The average Free Cashflow multiple on equity is 4.6x in Q3 2021 versus 4.2x in Q1 2021.

What is the key question? Are we at the start of another 12-year bull market in value stocks? That's the duration of the last period when the value style of investing out performed growth in the Asia Pacific region.What is the evidence? Over the last 12-months, the balance between growth and value reversed the dominance that growth has held for much of the last 10-years. Whilst in Q1 2021, we remained cautious about a full declaration that the trend is reversing, we feel that the process is indeed underway and that a multi-year reversal is in progress. This is not just positive for value investors, but increasingly so for Small-Mid Cap investors.Why read this screening note? Q1 2021’s screen performance trumped the market delivering relative outperformance of 26.2%. Of the 27 names presented, 18 stocks delivered positive share price performance with an average increase of 21%, whilst the remaining 9 stocks declined 9.4 %. What is presented? 56 names appear in our Q3 2021 Asia Pacific list providing plenty of opportunity for investors. The average EV/FCF multiple of 5.2x in Q3 2021 compared to 6.3x in Q1 2021 and 5.6x in Q2 2020. The average Free Cashflow multiple on equity is 4.6x in Q3 2021 versus 4.2x in Q1 2021.

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Mortgage Servicers:The mortgage servicer of a scheduled remittance must remit funds to the Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) when they are scheduled to be paid rather than when actually collected. In the case where there is a payment shortfall, the mortgage servicer must advance its own funds to cover the delinquent mortgage even if the funds are collected.  * Mortgage Insurers:Insurance is only partly overs the default after the loan becomes delinquent for 90 days. In other words, the mortgage servicer would still need to front the cash shortfall of each mortgage within the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pool. Another factor to consider is this thin capitalization of the mortgage insurers where their credit guarantee may not be worth the paper that its written on.

* Mortgage Servicers:The mortgage servicer of a scheduled remittance must remit funds to the Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) when they are scheduled to be paid rather than when actually collected. In the case where there is a payment shortfall, the mortgage servicer must advance its own funds to cover the delinquent mortgage even if the funds are collected.  * Mortgage Insurers:Insurance is only partly overs the default after the loan becomes delinquent for 90 days. In other words, the mortgage servicer would still need to front the cash shortfall of each mortgage within the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pool. Another factor to consider is this thin capitalization of the mortgage insurers where their credit guarantee may not be worth the paper that its written on.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD31.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT, Scentre, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD31.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT, Scentre, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 16th): Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory, BondAdviser

Nicholas Yaxley

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory

Australian bonds & fixed income research

BondAdviser

BondAdviser is the central reference point for intelligent information on Australian fixed income markets. We help you make informed decisions by providing unbiased research, transparent pricing data, analytics, portfolio tools and education.

BondAdviser has the broadest coverage of retail-accessible ASX-listed and over-the-counter Australian bonds and fixed income securities. We make it easy for you to review and compare investments before you place an order with your broker or dealer.

In <a href="https://www.bondadviser.com.au/blog/the-demand-we-have-been-waiting-for" target="_blank">November 2016</a> we stated a large proportion of redemptions would be reinvested in existing corporate issues to achieve some degree of sectoral diversification away from the banks. Since then, the demand/supply imbalance has squeezed trading margins on corporate hybrids to the point where some security valuations are being stretched from a trading margin risk perspective.Although we expect tight supply dynamics to continue and support expensive valuations, particularly for corporate listed securities, new investors should be aware of the inherent risk. For investors already holding these securities there is probably no reason to sell as scheduled corporate redemptions will continue to intensify demand in a relatively small market. We believe this situation of demand over supply will persist. However, given valuations are not reflective of risk profiles, we will be reviewing our recommendations if corporate hybrid margins continue to tighten.

In November 2016 we stated a large proportion of redemptions would be reinvested in existing corporate issues to achieve some degree of sectoral diversification away from the banks. Since then, the demand/supply imbalance has squeezed trading margins on corporate hybrids to the point where some security valuations are being stretched from a trading margin risk perspective.Although we expect tight supply dynamics to continue and support expensive valuations, particularly for corporate listed securities, new investors should be aware of the inherent risk. For investors already holding these securities there is probably no reason to sell as scheduled corporate redemptions will continue to intensify demand in a relatively small market. We believe this situation of demand over supply will persist. However, given valuations are not reflective of risk profiles, we will be reviewing our recommendations if corporate hybrid margins continue to tighten.

Valuations Stretched on ASX-Listed Corporate Hybrids

Australia

Helia Group Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides mortgage insurance to residential mortgage lenders. Helia Group serves customers in Australia.

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Helia Group (HLI AU)

Monday Delight: 28/07/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you...

Contrarian Cashflows

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

Is it the start of a 12-year bull market in value? That's the duration of the last period when APAC value outperformed growth. Q'1s FCF screen...

David Lepper

Another American Mortgage Tsunami Coming

* Mortgage Servicers:The mortgage servicer of a scheduled remittance must remit funds to the Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) when they are...

Thomas J. Monaco

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 16th): Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT CORPORATION...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Valuations Stretched on ASX-Listed Corporate Hybrids

In November 2016 we stated a large proportion of redemptions would be reinvested in existing corporate issues to achieve some degree of sectoral...

BondAdviser

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Market Cap (USDm)

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