Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softcare-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44292:1" rel="noopener">Softcare (2698 HK)</a>'s IPO price was fixed at HK$26.20, or 16.4x FY26F PER, with overwhelming positive responses in both the Hong Kong IPO and international offer. </li>
<li>We calculate its fair value at HK$26.07-29.43, based on a 50% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a> and a 20% discount to the US peers, leaving limited upside.</li>
<li>Its tiny public shareholder ownership (15%) and the potential of being an M&amp;A target will elevate its valuations. However, anything above the US peers (i.e. 20.5x PER) is expensive. </li>
</ul>



Softcare (2698 HK)'s IPO price was fixed at HK$26.20, or 16.4x FY26F PER, with overwhelming positive responses in both the Hong Kong IPO and international offer. 
We calculate its fair value at HK$26.07-29.43, based on a 50% premium to Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and a 20% discount to the US peers, leaving limited upside.
Its tiny public shareholder ownership (15%) and the potential of being an M&amp;A target will elevate its valuations. However, anything above the US peers (i.e. 20.5x PER) is expensive. 


Softcare (2698 HK): Where Should It Be Traded?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softcare-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44292:1" rel="noopener">Softcare (SOFT HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is an international hygiene product corporation with a focus on fast-growing Emerging Markets including Africa, Latin America and Central Asia. </li>
<li>In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Softcare (SOFT HK) is looking to raise up to US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is an international hygiene product corporation with a focus on fast-growing Emerging Markets including Africa, Latin America and Central Asia. 
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.


Softcare Pre-IPO: Decent Cornerstones, Riding on Africa Growth

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.</li>
<li>The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.</li>
<li>Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.</li>
</ul>


China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.
The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.
Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.


CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.</li>
<li>Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a>  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts' recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.
Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK)  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts' recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.



Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

China

Hengan International Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells personal hygiene products such as sanitary napkins and disposable baby diapers in China.  The Company's products are sold under the Anerle brand name.

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Hengan International Group (1044 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Dec. CATL is a high prob add and has a lock-up expiry tomorrow. Estimated turnover is 1.9% and trade is...

Brian Freitas

Softcare (2698 HK): Where Should It Be Traded?

Softcare's IPO price was fixed at HK$26.20, with positive responses. Fair value is HK$26.07-29.43, and limited upside is expected. Small free...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Softcare Pre-IPO: Decent Cornerstones, Riding on Africa Growth

Softcare is looking to raise up to US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Nicholas Tan

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market. Materials and Healthcare...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Dec. CATL is a high prob add and has a lock-up expiry tomorrow. Estimated turnover is 1.9% and trade is...

Brian Freitas

Softcare (2698 HK): Where Should It Be Traded?

​Softcare's IPO price was fixed at HK$26.20, with positive responses. Fair value is HK$26.07-29.43, and limited upside is expected. Small free...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Softcare Pre-IPO: Decent Cornerstones, Riding on Africa Growth

Softcare is looking to raise up to US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Nicholas Tan

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market. Materials and Healthcare...

David Mudd

Softcare's IPO price was fixed at HK$26.20, with positive responses. Fair value is HK$26.07-29.43, and limited upside is expected. Small free...