IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$48.56 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately US$1.7 billion. The shares will begin trading on 1 September.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248212" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248735" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-625-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:264754" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The retail and international subscription rates are materially below the median for large listings since 2024. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price, leaving no upside for investors.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) priced its IPO at HK$48.56 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately US$1.7 billion. The shares will begin trading on 1 September.
The IPO was discussed in SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case, SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case and SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The retail and international subscription rates are materially below the median for large listings since 2024. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price, leaving no upside for investors.


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>A month into SHEIN's IPO process, its near-term (FY26) growth prospects are downbeat</li>
<li>Here we present an array of FY27e PERs based on a range of top-line, OPM% estimates</li>
<li>Objective is to show combinations of revenue growth, margin that make SHEIN cheap-ish</li>
</ul>


A month into SHEIN's IPO process, its near-term (FY26) growth prospects are downbeat
Here we present an array of FY27e PERs based on a range of top-line, OPM% estimates
Objective is to show combinations of revenue growth, margin that make SHEIN cheap-ish


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: What 2027E Revenue Growth, OPM% Assumptions Are Needed to Make It Cheap-Ish?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a>, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248212" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248735" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:252773" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look</a> </li>
<li>I have revised lower my forecasts following the 1H trading update. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price range, leaving little to no upside for investors. </li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion.
I discussed the IPO in SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case, SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case and SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look 
I have revised lower my forecasts following the 1H trading update. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price range, leaving little to no upside for investors. 


SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> has an ambitious IPO plan to raise HK$13.1bn. However, the volatile earnings record and challenging environment require a sizeable safety margin.</li>
<li>We project a 3-year EPS CAGR of -5.3% as profitability will only slightly recover next year. Yet, our forecasts may still be optimistic.</li>
<li>The maximum IPO price (HK$49.50) implies a FY16 PER of 18.5x, but its small size and volatile growth are negatives. We will only be involved at the low end.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) has an ambitious IPO plan to raise HK$13.1bn. However, the volatile earnings record and challenging environment require a sizeable safety margin.
We project a 3-year EPS CAGR of -5.3% as profitability will only slightly recover next year. Yet, our forecasts may still be optimistic.
The maximum IPO price (HK$49.50) implies a FY16 PER of 18.5x, but its small size and volatile growth are negatives. We will only be involved at the low end.


SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Cheap for Some Reason

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Sweden

Hennes & Mauritz AB (H&M) designs and retails fashions for women, men, teens, and children.  The Company sells a variety trendy, sporty, and classic garments in addition to accessories such as jewelery, bags, and scarves, and cosmetics. H&M owns and operates stores in many European countries and the United States.

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Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMB SS)

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

SHEIN priced its IPO at HK$48.56 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately US$1.7 billion. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price,...

Arun George

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: What 2027E Revenue Growth, OPM% Assumptions Are Needed to Make It Cheap-Ish?

In this insight we present a matrix of Revenue and OP margin assumptions so readers can see which combinations could potentially generate strong...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion. In this note, I discuss valuation.

Arun George

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Cheap for Some Reason

SHEIN's plan to raise HK$13.1bn is aggressive, as the 3-year EPS CAGR will only be -5.3%. We need a sizeable safety margin to cover the risks and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

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