Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.</li>
<li>Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.</li>
<li>The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.


Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Our exhaustive channel checks across six of Hero MotoCorp’s (HMC) key states indicate that the 125cc segment is slowly emerging as a customer favourite, and as a result, contribution of 100cc has declined to 51% of motorcycles in FY23, from 58% in FY19</li><li>This shift in mix doesn’t bode well for HMC, given: (1) 100cc has always been its forte and contributes to 78% of its volumes (2) HMC has lost significant market share in 125cc segment to 21%, from 55% in FY19</li><li>This shift in mix has also led to HMC losing 510bps share in motorcycles since FY20 to 46.9%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our exhaustive channel checks across six of Hero MotoCorp’s (HMC) key states indicate that the 125cc segment is slowly emerging as a customer favourite, and as a result, contribution of 100cc has declined to 51% of motorcycles in FY23, from 58% in FY19This shift in mix doesn’t bode well for HMC, given: (1) 100cc has always been its forte and contributes to 78% of its volumes (2) HMC has lost significant market share in 125cc segment to 21%, from 55% in FY19This shift in mix has also led to HMC losing 510bps share in motorcycles since FY20 to 46.9%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp: Challenges Galore! Downgrade to REDUCE

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Electric 2-wheeler capacity in India is set to multiply manifold as growing demand is changing the face of the country's nascent EV sector.</li>
<li>Attractive Government incentives and subsidies, supportive policy framework have helped sector growth. However, the lack of key component supply systems locally and charging infrastructure are bottlenecks.</li>
<li>New entrants dominate the segment while incumbent 2-wheeler players are yet to create a meaningful presence. In the listed space,  Greaves Cotton (GRV IN) offers exposure via Ampere.</li>
</ul>


Electric 2-wheeler capacity in India is set to multiply manifold as growing demand is changing the face of the country's nascent EV sector.
Attractive Government incentives and subsidies, supportive policy framework have helped sector growth. However, the lack of key component supply systems locally and charging infrastructure are bottlenecks.
New entrants dominate the segment while incumbent 2-wheeler players are yet to create a meaningful presence. In the listed space,  Greaves Cotton (GRV IN) offers exposure via Ampere.


India EV Sector: Electric 2-Wheelers Are the Early Riders - Know the What, Why & Who

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%</li><li>P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%</li><li>LT gave 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25 which is better than expected</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%LT gave 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25 which is better than expectedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%</li><li>P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, Bharat Forge, Gujarat Gas

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)