Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Shift to Expansion (The Setup): While global crosscurrents and volatile commodity prices continue to create headline noise, our quantitative macro dashboard confirms a definitive shift into an 'Expansion' regime.</li><li>Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.</li><li>Broad Market Exhaustion: Despite the stronger underlying economic backdrop, the headline stock market remains choppy and inefficient. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Shift to Expansion (The Setup): While global crosscurrents and volatile commodity prices continue to create headline noise, our quantitative macro dashboard confirms a definitive shift into an 'Expansion' regime.Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.Broad Market Exhaustion: Despite the stronger underlying economic backdrop, the headline stock market remains choppy and inefficient. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Following a seasonally strong Q4FY26, we expect sequential (QoQ) EBITDA growth to moderate across our metals coverage in Q1FY27.</li><li>While aluminum and steel prices sustained their upward momentum - averaging higher on a QoQ basis - overall earnings are likely to be weighed down by softer shipment volumes and a marginal uptick in raw material (RM) costs.</li><li>Steel Coverage (Tata Steel &amp; SAIL): Higher Realizations Offset by Costs and Volume Drop: We expect a sequential decline in EBITDA for the steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), primarily driven by lower steel sales volumes coming off a high, seasonally strong Q4 base. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following a seasonally strong Q4FY26, we expect sequential (QoQ) EBITDA growth to moderate across our metals coverage in Q1FY27.While aluminum and steel prices sustained their upward momentum - averaging higher on a QoQ basis - overall earnings are likely to be weighed down by softer shipment volumes and a marginal uptick in raw material (RM) costs.Steel Coverage (Tata Steel &amp; SAIL): Higher Realizations Offset by Costs and Volume Drop: We expect a sequential decline in EBITDA for the steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), primarily driven by lower steel sales volumes coming off a high, seasonally strong Q4 base. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The global aluminium industry has entered a decade of structural realignment, transitioning from a cyclical industrial metal into an energy-constrained strategic asset.</li><li>As of mid-2026, the market is defined by a fundamental collision between inelastic supply, anchored by China’s 45 Mt production ceiling, and a structural demand surge driven by new use cases such as light weighting through EVs and RE focus.</li><li>The Structural Deficit - A New Market Regime: Historical primary aluminium markets, defined by consistent surpluses, have been replaced by a regime of structural tightness.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global aluminium industry has entered a decade of structural realignment, transitioning from a cyclical industrial metal into an energy-constrained strategic asset.As of mid-2026, the market is defined by a fundamental collision between inelastic supply, anchored by China’s 45 Mt production ceiling, and a structural demand surge driven by new use cases such as light weighting through EVs and RE focus.The Structural Deficit - A New Market Regime: Historical primary aluminium markets, defined by consistent surpluses, have been replaced by a regime of structural tightness.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aluminum Sector Update - The Era of Energy-Constrained Scarcity

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, backed by the resilient performance of Novelis.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 78,133 Cr (up 20%/17% YoY/QoQ), 3% ahead of our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 10,176 Cr (up 6%/28% YoY/QoQ), exceeding our pre-Novelis results estimate of Rs 8,970 Cr, led by strong upstream aluminium and copper performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, backed by the resilient performance of Novelis.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 78,133 Cr (up 20%/17% YoY/QoQ), 3% ahead of our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 10,176 Cr (up 6%/28% YoY/QoQ), exceeding our pre-Novelis results estimate of Rs 8,970 Cr, led by strong upstream aluminium and copper performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an Indian aluminium and copper manufacturing company, and a subsidiary of the Aditya Birla Group. It is a major producer of primary aluminium, flat-rolled products, extrusions, and foils, and also manufactures copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Monthly Quant Report August 2026

Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.

Axis Direct

Result Preview:Metals and Mining

Following a seasonally strong Q4FY26, we expect sequential (QoQ) EBITDA growth to moderate across our metals coverage in Q1FY27.

Axis Direct

Aluminum Sector Update - The Era of Energy-Constrained Scarcity

The global aluminium industry has entered a decade of structural realignment, transitioning from a cyclical industrial metal into an energy...

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

EBITDA stood at Rs 10,176 Cr (up 6%/28% YoY/QoQ), exceeding our pre-Novelis results estimate of Rs 8,970 Cr, led by strong upstream aluminium and...

Axis Direct

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