Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,232 Cr (up 13% but down 1% QoQ), in line with our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 8,075 Cr (up 6% YoY, but down 16% QoQ), a 10% beat vs. our estimate and 3% ahead of consensus, led by strong Aluminium performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,232 Cr (up 13% but down 1% QoQ), in line with our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 8,075 Cr (up 6% YoY, but down 16% QoQ), a 10% beat vs. our estimate and 3% ahead of consensus, led by strong Aluminium performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

<ul><li>In Q1FY26, we foresee divergence in EBITDA margin trends for Steel and Non-Ferrous companies.</li><li>While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong base of Q4FY25.</li><li>For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to lower coking coal consumption costs and higher sales price realsiations (led by improvement in HRC prices which got support from the safeguard duty), partially offset by a drop in steel sales volumes QoQ over a seasonally strong Q4FY25. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY26, we foresee divergence in EBITDA margin trends for Steel and Non-Ferrous companies.While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong base of Q4FY25.For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to lower coking coal consumption costs and higher sales price realsiations (led by improvement in HRC prices which got support from the safeguard duty), partially offset by a drop in steel sales volumes QoQ over a seasonally strong Q4FY25. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an Indian aluminium and copper manufacturing company, and a subsidiary of the Aditya Birla Group. It is a major producer of primary aluminium, flat-rolled products, extrusions, and foils, and also manufactures copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,232 Cr (up 13% but down...

Axis Direct

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong...

Axis Direct

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining”

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,232 Cr (up 13% but down...

Axis Direct

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong...

Axis Direct

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY...

Axis Direct

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...