Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.</li><li>Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.</li><li>Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.</li><li>Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.</li><li>Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II base oils cargo prices hold firm versus US export prices so far in Q4 2025.</li><li>Firm prices complicate arbitrage to move surplus supplies to markets like Latin America, suggesting Asia’s supply-demand fundamentals remain balanced to tight.</li><li>Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at similar levels so far in Q4 2025 to end-Q3, even after recent rebound in crude/gasoil prices.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II base oils cargo prices hold firm versus US export prices so far in Q4 2025.Firm prices complicate arbitrage to move surplus supplies to markets like Latin America, suggesting Asia’s supply-demand fundamentals remain balanced to tight.Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at similar levels so far in Q4 2025 to end-Q3, even after recent rebound in crude/gasoil prices.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 27 October

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil falls amid rebound in crude and diesel prices.</li><li>Ongoing fall in outright heavy-grade prices magnifies size of dip in heavy-grade margins.</li><li>Heavy-grade margins maintain steep, even if narrowing premium to light-grade margins.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil falls amid rebound in crude and diesel prices.Ongoing fall in outright heavy-grade prices magnifies size of dip in heavy-grade margins.Heavy-grade margins maintain steep, even if narrowing premium to light-grade margins.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 27 October

India

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and manufactures petroleum and petroleum products. The Company's products, which are sold via outlets throughout India, include lube products, lubricating oil, aviation fuel, hydraulic brake fluid, greases, liquefied petroleum gas and insecticides. The Government of India is the majority shareholder in the company.

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Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN)

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024. Ongoing...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of...

Base Oil News

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 27 October

Asia’s Group II base oils cargo prices hold firm versus US export prices so far in Q4 2025. Firm prices complicate arbitrage to move surplus...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 27 October

Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil falls amid rebound in crude and diesel prices. Ongoing fall in outright heavy-grade...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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