Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 marks a clear earnings inflection, with record revenue, strong EBITDA growth, and underlying net profit above ₩250 bn after adjusting for one-off derivative losses.</li>
<li>TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength drive upgrades, lifting FY25–27 EBITDA/EPS by 8–20% and establishing a higher structural margin base.</li>
<li>Overnance resolution and treasury cancellations offer re-rating potential, with a target price of ₩1.52 mn implying ~27% upside.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 marks a clear earnings inflection, with record revenue, strong EBITDA growth, and underlying net profit above ₩250 bn after adjusting for one-off derivative losses.
TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength drive upgrades, lifting FY25–27 EBITDA/EPS by 8–20% and establishing a higher structural margin base.
Overnance resolution and treasury cancellations offer re-rating potential, with a target price of ₩1.52 mn implying ~27% upside.


Korea Zinc – 3Q25 Review, TC/RC Upcycle, Rare-Metals Leverage & Governance Outlook

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cleanmax-enviro-energy-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45702:1" rel="noopener">CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN)</a> (CEESL) is looking to raise about US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise about US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.
CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Debt Amid Inconsistent Growth

<ul>
<li>Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.</li>
<li>Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.</li>
<li>Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.</li>
</ul>


Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.
Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.
Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.


Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

India

Hindustan Zinc Limited specializes in the exploration, mining and smelting of zinc, lead and other non-ferrous metals.  The Company's products include zinc ore, lead zinc concentrate, zinc metal, lead metal, cadmium metal, silver metal and sulfuric acid.

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Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Korea Zinc – 3Q25 Review, TC/RC Upcycle, Rare-Metals Leverage & Governance Outlook

3Q25 shows strong earnings growth with record revenue and net profit above ₩250 bn, driven by TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength, leading to...

Rahul Jain

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Debt Amid Inconsistent Growth

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Limited (CEESL) is looking to raise around US$586m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Akshat Shah

Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Rahul Jain

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Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Korea Zinc – 3Q25 Review, TC/RC Upcycle, Rare-Metals Leverage & Governance Outlook

​3Q25 shows strong earnings growth with record revenue and net profit above ₩250 bn, driven by TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength, leading to...

Rahul Jain

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Debt Amid Inconsistent Growth

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Limited (CEESL) is looking to raise around US$586m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Akshat Shah

Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

​Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Rahul Jain

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

3Q25 shows strong earnings growth with record revenue and net profit above ₩250 bn, driven by TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength, leading to...

Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...