Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech rebound into NVDA print, which came in slightly ahead of estimates. Server related up on SMCI gains.</li>
<li>Expect this to be enough to spark dip buying for Japan SPE plays such as TEL, Disco, as well as likes of Fujikura and MHI.</li>
<li>Hoya has bottomed in the last 2-days and looks primed for more upside after excessive weakness.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebound into NVDA print, which came in slightly ahead of estimates. Server related up on SMCI gains.
Expect this to be enough to spark dip buying for Japan SPE plays such as TEL, Disco, as well as likes of Fujikura and MHI.
Hoya has bottomed in the last 2-days and looks primed for more upside after excessive weakness.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

<ul>
<li>Will we see more of the same ineffectual export curbs or a lightening of export restrictions?</li>
<li>Expect a continued rotation into all things non-tech in JP including Home Builders who jumped overnight as yields sank.</li>
<li>Plenty of shorts with ample downside including Hitachi, Fuji Elec, Hokkaido Elec outside of the mainstay AI plays.</li>
</ul>


Will we see more of the same ineffectual export curbs or a lightening of export restrictions?
Expect a continued rotation into all things non-tech in JP including Home Builders who jumped overnight as yields sank.
Plenty of shorts with ample downside including Hitachi, Fuji Elec, Hokkaido Elec outside of the mainstay AI plays.


Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> in March.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> as the stock has underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> by a lot.</li>
<li>The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> changes in March.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> announced a preconditional tender offer from Paloma Rheem Holdings Co at JPY2,808 per share, a 23.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in early July, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.</li>
<li>The process is lacking as Fujitsu declined to conduct an auction. The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board requested price.</li>
</ul>



Fujitsu General (6755 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Paloma Rheem Holdings Co at JPY2,808 per share, a 23.5% premium to the last close.
The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in early July, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.
The process is lacking as Fujitsu declined to conduct an auction. The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board requested price.


Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP) Supports a Light Tender Offer

Japan

Hitachi, Ltd. manufactures communications and electronic equipment, heavy electrical and industrial machinery, and consumer electronics.  The Company's diverse product line ranges from nuclear power systems to kitchen appliances. Hitachi also operates subsidiaries in the wire and cable, metal, and chemical industries.

Price Gauge
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Hitachi Ltd Adr (HTHIY US)

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

Tech rebound into NVDA print slightly ahead of estimates may spark dip buying for Japan SPE. Hoya has bottomed in the last 2 days but looks primed...

Andrew Jackson

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

Expect a continued shift away towards non-tech sectors, particularly home builders. Plenty of shorts with downside to consider.

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP) Supports a Light Tender Offer

Due to the lack of an auction, the offer being below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board's requested price, a competing bid...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

​Tech rebound into NVDA print slightly ahead of estimates may spark dip buying for Japan SPE. Hoya has bottomed in the last 2 days but looks primed...

Andrew Jackson

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

Expect a continued shift away towards non-tech sectors, particularly home builders. Plenty of shorts with downside to consider.

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP) Supports a Light Tender Offer

Due to the lack of an auction, the offer being below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board's requested price, a competing bid...

Arun George

Tech rebound into NVDA print slightly ahead of estimates may spark dip buying for Japan SPE. Hoya has bottomed in the last 2 days but looks primed...