Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Metal /: Cover Story: Metal magnate’s fall from China’s rich list to bankruptcy</li>
<li>Personnel /: China central bank Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng named Communist Party chief</li>
<li>China-U.S. /: China, U.S. have shared interests in getting ties back on track, party official says</li>
</ul>


Metal /: Cover Story: Metal magnate’s fall from China’s rich list to bankruptcy
Personnel /: China central bank Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng named Communist Party chief
China-U.S. /: China, U.S. have shared interests in getting ties back on track, party official says


CX Daily: Metal Magnate’s Fall From China’s Rich List to Bankruptcy

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.</li>
<li>Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.</li>
<li>Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.
Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.
Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.


Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF SE (BAS GR)</a> has announced a € 3 billion share buyback program, addressed to 5.22% of total shares (2.61%/year if the purchases are equally divided between 2022 and 2023).</li>
<li>It represents 9 days of ADV, to be executed all things equal in 36 trading days. The positive is the message sent of FCF yield and commitment to growing dividend.</li>
<li>Comparables based median TP is €78.57/share (vs. €78.5 median TP on Capital IQ). The 2022e FCF yield of 7.4% (Capital IQ consensus) underpins the 5% dividend yield. BUY.</li>
</ul>



BASF SE (BAS GR) has announced a € 3 billion share buyback program, addressed to 5.22% of total shares (2.61%/year if the purchases are equally divided between 2022 and 2023).
It represents 9 days of ADV, to be executed all things equal in 36 trading days. The positive is the message sent of FCF yield and commitment to growing dividend.
Comparables based median TP is €78.57/share (vs. €78.5 median TP on Capital IQ). The 2022e FCF yield of 7.4% (Capital IQ consensus) underpins the 5% dividend yield. BUY.


MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous <em>Int’l Compass </em>(10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.</p>

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

Germany

BASF SE is a chemical company. The Company operates in six segments, including chemicals, plastics, performance products, functional solutions, agricultural solutions, and oil and gas. BASF offers products for the chemical, automotive, construction, agriculture, oil, plastics, electrical, electronics, furniture, and paper industries, and provides a range of system solutions and services.

BASF (BAS GR)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: Metal Magnate’s Fall From China’s Rich List to Bankruptcy

Metal /: Cover Story: Metal magnate’s fall from China’s rich list to bankruptcy Personnel /: China central bank Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng...

Caixin Global

Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include...

Vermilion Research

BASF: €3 Bn Buyback

BASF's announcement represents a positive message about the commitment to a growing dividend. The program represents 9 days ADV and underpins solid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research