US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post (DHL GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN)</a> are the top two candidates for deletion with 7-9% below the exit threshold. Forecasted supply is $200m and 2 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> are the top two candidates for addition by replacement. Forecasted demand is $330m and 1-2 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener"></a>The highest ranked between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industria-de-diseno-textil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21278:1" rel="noopener">Industria De Diseno Textil (ITX SM)</a> could become the third addition, conditional on the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF (BAS GR)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Deutsche Post (DHL GR) and Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN) are the top two candidates for deletion with 7-9% below the exit threshold. Forecasted supply is $200m and 2 ADV.

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM) and London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) are the top two candidates for addition by replacement. Forecasted demand is $330m and 1-2 ADV.

The highest ranked between Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Industria De Diseno Textil (ITX SM) could become the third addition, conditional on the deletion of BASF (BAS GR).


STOXX Europe 50: DHL's $200M Departure, ISP and LSEG Deliver Instead

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se">BASF </a>is navigating a challenging cyclical downturn in the chemical industry by focusing on cost savings, portfolio optimization, and strategic investments in high-growth areas, particularly in Asia.</li>
  <li>The company's core competitive advantage remains its integrated 'Verbund' production system, which provides significant cost and efficiency benefits, although it faces headwinds from high European energy costs and increasing competition from Asia and the Middle East.</li>
  <li>While near-term profitability is under pressure due to weak demand and overcapacity in commodity chemicals, long-term value drivers include a strategic focus on specialty chemicals, battery materials, and sustainable solutions, coupled with a commitment to shareholder returns through a stable dividend policy.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
BASF is navigating a challenging cyclical downturn in the chemical industry by focusing on cost savings, portfolio optimization, and strategic investments in high-growth areas, particularly in Asia.
  The company's core competitive advantage remains its integrated 'Verbund' production system, which provides significant cost and efficiency benefits, although it faces headwinds from high European energy costs and increasing competition from Asia and the Middle East.
  While near-term profitability is under pressure due to weak demand and overcapacity in commodity chemicals, long-term value drivers include a strategic focus on specialty chemicals, battery materials, and sustainable solutions, coupled with a commitment to shareholder returns through a stable dividend policy.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass)...</li>
<li>...with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>Quick reclaims are technically bullish, but we discussed last week how we'd be sellers on rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX(currently 6648), and that remains our playbook.</li>
</ul>


After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass)...
...with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support.
Quick reclaims are technically bullish, but we discussed last week how we'd be sellers on rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX(currently 6648), and that remains our playbook.


Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Evonik rejected BASF's reported €22.15 approach; €24–27 looks achievable without stretching the valuation, with €25 our base case.</li>
<li>At €25, BASF pays 7.17x FY26E EBITDA, falling to 6.06x after €400m synergies, while RAG's 43.8% stake is worth €5.10bn.</li>
<li>We derive a €23.00 target price from our scenario analysis, 15.8% above €19.84, with a 70% probability assigned to a transaction.</li>
</ul>


Evonik rejected BASF's reported €22.15 approach; €24–27 looks achievable without stretching the valuation, with €25 our base case.
At €25, BASF pays 7.17x FY26E EBITDA, falling to 6.06x after €400m synergies, while RAG's 43.8% stake is worth €5.10bn.
We derive a €23.00 target price from our scenario analysis, 15.8% above €19.84, with a 70% probability assigned to a transaction.


BASF/Evonik: €22.15 Looks Like an Opening Bid

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariffs intensify strain on the petrochemical sector, shielding domestic producers while redirecting Chinese exports into Asia and leaving European firms most exposed.</li>
<li>Trade barriers amplify oversupply pressures, benefiting U.S.-centric petrochemical firms, granting Middle Eastern players new market share, and pushing Chinese exporters into low-margin Asian markets.</li>
<li>Global petrochemicals face a reset, exposing Europe’s vulnerabilities, capping Asian gains, and reinforcing domestic advantages for American producers.</li>
</ul>


U.S. tariffs intensify strain on the petrochemical sector, shielding domestic producers while redirecting Chinese exports into Asia and leaving European firms most exposed.
Trade barriers amplify oversupply pressures, benefiting U.S.-centric petrochemical firms, granting Middle Eastern players new market share, and pushing Chinese exporters into low-margin Asian markets.
Global petrochemicals face a reset, exposing Europe’s vulnerabilities, capping Asian gains, and reinforcing domestic advantages for American producers.


U.S. Petrochemical Companies Gain Ground as European Firms Falter in U.S.-China Trade War

Germany

BASF SE is a chemical company. The Company operates in six segments, including chemicals, plastics, performance products, functional solutions, agricultural solutions, and oil and gas. BASF offers products for the chemical, automotive, construction, agriculture, oil, plastics, electrical, electronics, furniture, and paper industries, and provides a range of system solutions and services.

Price Gauge
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BASF (BAS GR)

STOXX Europe 50: DHL's $200M Departure, ISP and LSEG Deliver Instead

SX5P September 2024 Announcement: LSEG and ISP were the announced additions. DHL and RKT were the announced deletions. SX5E September 2024...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Primer: BASF (BAS GR) - Apr 2026

BASF is navigating a challenging cyclical downturn in the chemical industry by focusing on cost savings, portfolio optimization, and strategic...

αSK Primers

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Concerns Persist; $SPX Testing Resistance at 21-day EMA and Near 200-day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact. Actionable ideas within Staples $XLP and...

Vermilion Research

BASF/Evonik: €22.15 Looks Like an Opening Bid

Evonik has rejected BASF's reported €22.15 approach. We look at how much higher BASF could go, what RAG needs and whether the numbers still work at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Petrochemical Companies Gain Ground as European Firms Falter in U.S.-China Trade War

U.S. tariffs on petrochemicals shift global trade dynamics, benefiting American producers, Middle Eastern players, and low-margin Asian markets...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

STOXX Europe 50: DHL's $200M Departure, ISP and LSEG Deliver Instead

SX5P September 2024 Announcement: LSEG and ISP were the announced additions. DHL and RKT were the announced deletions. SX5E September 2024...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Primer: BASF (BAS GR) - Apr 2026

BASF is navigating a challenging cyclical downturn in the chemical industry by focusing on cost savings, portfolio optimization, and strategic...

αSK Primers

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Concerns Persist; $SPX Testing Resistance at 21-day EMA and Near 200-day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact. Actionable ideas within Staples $XLP and...

Vermilion Research

BASF/Evonik: €22.15 Looks Like an Opening Bid

Evonik has rejected BASF's reported €22.15 approach. We look at how much higher BASF could go, what RAG needs and whether the numbers still work at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Petrochemical Companies Gain Ground as European Firms Falter in U.S.-China Trade War

​U.S. tariffs on petrochemicals shift global trade dynamics, benefiting American producers, Middle Eastern players, and low-margin Asian markets...

Mint Finance

U.S. tariffs on petrochemicals shift global trade dynamics, benefiting American producers, Middle Eastern players, and low-margin Asian markets...