IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>, Canvest.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec Corp (2715 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK), Canvest.

Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), Capitol Health (CAJ AU), Elematec Corp (2715 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) - HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

China Shengmu Organic Milk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 30th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-modern-dairy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6785:1" rel="noopener">China Modern Dairy (1117 HK)</a> (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a> (CSM). </li>
<li>CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. </li>
<li>The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. </li>
</ul>


On the 30th October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) (CSM). 
CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. 
The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. 


On China Shengmu (1432)'s Conditional MGO

<ul>
<li>First it was the Li family's, via <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.</li>
<li>Now the U.S.'s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” - i.e. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a> - from the US telecommunication network.</li>
<li>The FCC order cites HKT's affiliation with black-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW (8 HK)</a>, HKT's parent.  A stake it acquired twenty years ago.</li>
</ul>


First it was the Li family's, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
Now the U.S.'s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” - i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) - from the US telecommunication network.
The FCC order cites HKT's affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT's parent.  A stake it acquired twenty years ago.


The Li Family's Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

Hong Kong

HKBN Ltd., provides telephone voice and data communications services. The Company offers wireless internet service, IDD and IPTV service, local telephony services, and other value-added services.

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HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) - HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet

This week, the highest gross spreads are Lifestyle China (21.7%), Arcadium Lithium (11.4%), Henlius (11.1%), ESR (9.2%), Get Nice (8.7%), Canvest...

Arun George

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

On China Shengmu (1432)'s Conditional MGO

Trading at a 6%/14% gross/annual. spread assuming payment in late April. I don't have a strong conviction on the back-end. There's a good chance...

David Blennerhassett

The Li Family's Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

PCCW should not trade at a massive premium. Unless PCCW or HKT is next in the cross-hairs. However this latest FCC development is unlikely to spur...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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