Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Masan Consumer Corp (MCH VN), VPS Securities (VCK VN) and VPBank Securities (VPX VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of Vietnam stocks being added to a global index starting from the September rebalance and the market could outperform its regional peers.</li>
</ul>


Masan Consumer Corp (MCH VN), VPS Securities (VCK VN) and VPBank Securities (VPX VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
There is a high probability of Vietnam stocks being added to a global index starting from the September rebalance and the market could outperform its regional peers.


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>September update: Steel sales showed signs of recovery in September, with construction steel volumes rising 17% MoM (+1% YoY) and downstream categories up 12% MoM (+20% YoY).</li><li>HRC deliveries remained strong at 477K ton (+11% MoM, +95% YoY), benefiting from a low base.</li><li>Despite recent weakness, 9M25 total volumes reached 8.47mn tons (+22% YoY, 74% of FY25F forecast), supported by robust early-year demand. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

September update: Steel sales showed signs of recovery in September, with construction steel volumes rising 17% MoM (+1% YoY) and downstream categories up 12% MoM (+20% YoY).HRC deliveries remained strong at 477K ton (+11% MoM, +95% YoY), benefiting from a low base.Despite recent weakness, 9M25 total volumes reached 8.47mn tons (+22% YoY, 74% of FY25F forecast), supported by robust early-year demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) - Earning Its Premium

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Rong Viet Securities

Rong Viet Securities

RongViet is proud to have a research team of experienced and trustworthy people whose works are at all time governed by the codes of objectivity, integrity and client's best interest.

Looking at relevant, up-to-date information from multiple perspectives with the support of intensive data and analyses, RongViet's research is effective, practical and widely used for investing purposes.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Q2/2025, Despite a slight decline in revenue, profit recorded positive growth due to an expanded profit margin, driven by lower raw material prices starting from the second half of Q1. </li><li>Total Sales Volume Reached 2.8 million tons (+20% YoY). Of which, construction steel remained the primary product, with stable sales volume at 1.3 million tons (+2% YoY, +9% QoQ).</li><li>Notably, HRC sales volume saw significant growth following the commissioning of the Dung Quat 02 (DQ02) plant in March (operating at ~70% capacity in Phase 1), with widespread consumption by domestic flat steel manufacturers in both Northern and Southern regions.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2/2025, Despite a slight decline in revenue, profit recorded positive growth due to an expanded profit margin, driven by lower raw material prices starting from the second half of Q1. Total Sales Volume Reached 2.8 million tons (+20% YoY). Of which, construction steel remained the primary product, with stable sales volume at 1.3 million tons (+2% YoY, +9% QoQ).Notably, HRC sales volume saw significant growth following the commissioning of the Dung Quat 02 (DQ02) plant in March (operating at ~70% capacity in Phase 1), with widespread consumption by domestic flat steel manufacturers in both Northern and Southern regions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HPG - Hot-Rolled Coil Has Become a Cornerstone of the Group

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our focus on earnings delivery continues, this time turning to ASEAN. We screen stocks with consistent EPS estimate upgrades, strong EPS growth forecasts, net debt/equity below 1 and PEG&lt;1.3x.</li>
<li>In the six ASEAN markets, 10 stocks satisfy our criteria - four from Vietnam, two each from Indonesia and Thailand and one each from Singapore and Malaysia.</li>
<li>Nine of the ten stocks appreciated sharply over the past 3 and 6 months. Over the past 12 months 7 stocks appreciated and three declined.</li>
</ul>


Our focus on earnings delivery continues, this time turning to ASEAN. We screen stocks with consistent EPS estimate upgrades, strong EPS growth forecasts, net debt/equity below 1 and PEG&lt;1.3x.
In the six ASEAN markets, 10 stocks satisfy our criteria - four from Vietnam, two each from Indonesia and Thailand and one each from Singapore and Malaysia.
Nine of the ten stocks appreciated sharply over the past 3 and 6 months. Over the past 12 months 7 stocks appreciated and three declined.


Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

<ul><li>We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND35,300/share. </li><li>Our higher TP reflects 6%/10%/10%/10% upgrades to our 2026–29F NPAT-MI forecasts from 8%/12%/12%/13% increases to steel NPAT-MI.</li><li>Our raised 2026–29F steel earnings is due to (1) higher margins, driven by a new steel price recovery cycle under China’s 2025 “anti-involution” policy and higher iron ore input supply, and (2) the contribution from new steel capacity.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND35,300/share. Our higher TP reflects 6%/10%/10%/10% upgrades to our 2026–29F NPAT-MI forecasts from 8%/12%/12%/13% increases to steel NPAT-MI.Our raised 2026–29F steel earnings is due to (1) higher margins, driven by a new steel price recovery cycle under China’s 2025 “anti-involution” policy and higher iron ore input supply, and (2) the contribution from new steel capacity.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hoa Phat Group (HPG)  - National Champion Riding on Domestic, External Tailwinds

Vietnam

Hoa Phat Group is a leading industrial manufacturing group in Vietnam, primarily specializing in iron and steel production, including construction steel, hot rolled coil, steel pipes, and galvanized steel. The group also diversifies into agriculture, real estate, and home appliances. Founded in August 1992 as a construction machine and equipment trading company, Hoa Phat Group is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

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Hoa Phat Group (HPG VN)

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

There are 3 adds for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. Vietnam stocks...

Brian Freitas

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) - Earning Its Premium

September update: Steel sales showed signs of recovery in September, with construction steel volumes rising 17% MoM (+1% YoY) and downstream...

Mirae Asset Securities

HPG - Hot-Rolled Coil Has Become a Cornerstone of the Group

Q2/2025, Despite a slight decline in revenue, profit recorded positive growth due to an expanded profit margin, driven by lower raw material prices...

Rong Viet Securities

Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Hoa Phat Group (HPG) - National Champion Riding on Domestic, External Tailwinds

Our higher TP reflects 6%/10%/10%/10% upgrades to our 2026–29F NPAT-MI forecasts from 8%/12%/12%/13% increases to steel NPAT-MI.

Vietcap

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

There are 3 adds for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. Vietnam stocks...

Brian Freitas

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) - Earning Its Premium

September update: Steel sales showed signs of recovery in September, with construction steel volumes rising 17% MoM (+1% YoY) and downstream...

Mirae Asset Securities

HPG - Hot-Rolled Coil Has Become a Cornerstone of the Group

Q2/2025, Despite a slight decline in revenue, profit recorded positive growth due to an expanded profit margin, driven by lower raw material prices...

Rong Viet Securities

Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

​We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Hoa Phat Group (HPG) - National Champion Riding on Domestic, External Tailwinds

Our higher TP reflects 6%/10%/10%/10% upgrades to our 2026–29F NPAT-MI forecasts from 8%/12%/12%/13% increases to steel NPAT-MI.

Vietcap

We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...