Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Uncertainty reigns as SPX closed flat Friday; US Treasury Yields rise as Yield Curve flattens on strong producer price data; Headwinds Mount in China's Economy;  Oil Demand reach record.</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 145; Kishida Cabinet approval down; Wholesale prices slow; Japanese firms opt to go private rather than face activists; Inbound Boost from China.</li>
<li>NUGGET. Honda has a robust earnings structure that we think will be resilient to the increasing investment spend on BEV, with motor bike profitability</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Uncertainty reigns as SPX closed flat Friday; US Treasury Yields rise as Yield Curve flattens on strong producer price data; Headwinds Mount in China's Economy;  Oil Demand reach record.
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 145; Kishida Cabinet approval down; Wholesale prices slow; Japanese firms opt to go private rather than face activists; Inbound Boost from China.
NUGGET. Honda has a robust earnings structure that we think will be resilient to the increasing investment spend on BEV, with motor bike profitability


Ohayo Japan| Uncertainty Reigns in Equity World; NUGGET: Honda - A Bike Company that Makes Cars

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Japan, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Japan, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (18 Aug 2026)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Major Equity Indices fall over night with Tech leading the sell off; Oil prices (and Stocks) in the other direction; Negative China CPI-Deflation confirmed. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.7;  China to allow Group Tours to Japan; EARNINGS: Positive Inpex and Nexon: Strong earnings and Buyback; Sony  earnings down on M&amp;A hangover</li>
<li>NUGGET. Yesterday's CPI print confirmed that China in Deflation. Looking for more aggressive stimulus. Monetary unlikely to work. Looking for A BIG FISCAL STIMULUS(at some point). Remain cautious China related. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Major Equity Indices fall over night with Tech leading the sell off; Oil prices (and Stocks) in the other direction; Negative China CPI-Deflation confirmed. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.7;  China to allow Group Tours to Japan; EARNINGS: Positive Inpex and Nexon: Strong earnings and Buyback; Sony  earnings down on M&amp;A hangover
NUGGET. Yesterday's CPI print confirmed that China in Deflation. Looking for more aggressive stimulus. Monetary unlikely to work. Looking for A BIG FISCAL STIMULUS(at some point). Remain cautious China related. 


Ohayo Japan| SPX Sell-Off Led by Tech/Discretionary Stocks; NUGGET: China-Double Whammy on Deflation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  S&amp;P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px,  Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may  lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure</li>
<li>NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) - First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  S&amp;P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px,  Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus
JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may  lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure
NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) - First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.


Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again...On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) - Green Demand Steel a Reality!

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

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Honda Motor (7267 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Uncertainty Reigns in Equity World; NUGGET: Honda - A Bike Company that Makes Cars

SPX closes almost flat; Producer prices higher than expected; Nikkei Futures -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 145; Kishida Cabinet approval down; JP Wholesale...

Mark Chadwick

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (18 Aug 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Ohayo Japan| SPX Sell-Off Led by Tech/Discretionary Stocks; NUGGET: China-Double Whammy on Deflation

US Equities sell off lead by Tech; NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.7; China to allow Group Tours to Japan; EARNINGS: Positive Inpex and...

Mark Chadwick

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again...On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) - Green Demand Steel a Reality!

SPX up again head of Fed; Earnings. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may ...

Mark Chadwick

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Ohayo Japan| Uncertainty Reigns in Equity World; NUGGET: Honda - A Bike Company that Makes Cars

SPX closes almost flat; Producer prices higher than expected; Nikkei Futures -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 145; Kishida Cabinet approval down; JP Wholesale...

Mark Chadwick

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (18 Aug 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Ohayo Japan| SPX Sell-Off Led by Tech/Discretionary Stocks; NUGGET: China-Double Whammy on Deflation

US Equities sell off lead by Tech; NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.7; China to allow Group Tours to Japan; EARNINGS: Positive Inpex and...

Mark Chadwick

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again...On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) - Green Demand Steel a Reality!

SPX up again head of Fed; Earnings. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may ...

Mark Chadwick

Discover four pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.