Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mazda leaped upward with other Auto companies following a Court of International Trade ruling that nullified Trump’s reciprocal tariffs but left auto tariffs at 25%.</li>
<li>The CIT has historically given presidents much more leeway on rules that the auto tariffs fall under, so challenges to these tariffs are less likely to succeed.</li>
<li>The tariff threat to Mazda is existential, and in our view, consensus forecasts have not even begun to appreciate this.</li>
</ul>


Mazda leaped upward with other Auto companies following a Court of International Trade ruling that nullified Trump’s reciprocal tariffs but left auto tariffs at 25%.
The CIT has historically given presidents much more leeway on rules that the auto tariffs fall under, so challenges to these tariffs are less likely to succeed.
The tariff threat to Mazda is existential, and in our view, consensus forecasts have not even begun to appreciate this.


CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>This note examines <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)'</a>s market share trajectory in the context of broader two-wheeler industry trends.</li>
<li>It also highlights internal leadership churn and execution issues post split from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Finally, this note reviews the strategic outlook and key challenges ahead for the company, despite its discounted valuation compared to peers.</li>
</ul>


This note examines Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)'s market share trajectory in the context of broader two-wheeler industry trends.
It also highlights internal leadership churn and execution issues post split from Honda Motor (7267 JP) 
Finally, this note reviews the strategic outlook and key challenges ahead for the company, despite its discounted valuation compared to peers.


Can the India's Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.</li>
<li>The selling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a>. The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market's continued listing criteria.</li>
<li>The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet (4784 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.
The selling shareholder is GMO Internet Group (9449 JP). The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market's continued listing criteria.
The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.


GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>DENSO last sold some of its stake nearly a year ago and hence, this deal is well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).
DENSO last sold some of its stake nearly a year ago and hence, this deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Renesas Electronics Block - Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.</li>
<li>Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.</li>
<li>Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.</li>
</ul>


The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.
Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.
Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.


Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

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Honda Motor (7267 JP)

CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)

Mazda faces existential threat. Court ruling nullifies Trump's reciprocal tariffs but leaves auto tariffs at 25%. Markets have not begun to...

Michael Allen

Can the India's Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?

Analysis of Hero Motocorp's market share, leadership changes, and its strategic challenges in the two-wheeler industry.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering is enormous, representing 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Along with a...

Arun George

Renesas Electronics Block - Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This is a well-flagged deal.

Sumeet Singh

Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

Tata Motors shareholders have given approval for the proposed demerger of the commercial Vehicle business into a separate, listed entity with a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)

​Mazda faces existential threat. Court ruling nullifies Trump's reciprocal tariffs but leaves auto tariffs at 25%. Markets have not begun to...

Michael Allen

Can the India's Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?

​Analysis of Hero Motocorp's market share, leadership changes, and its strategic challenges in the two-wheeler industry.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering is enormous, representing 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Along with a...

Arun George

Renesas Electronics Block - Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This is a well-flagged deal.

Sumeet Singh

Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

Tata Motors shareholders have given approval for the proposed demerger of the commercial Vehicle business into a separate, listed entity with a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Mazda faces existential threat. Court ruling nullifies Trump's reciprocal tariffs but leaves auto tariffs at 25%. Markets have not begun to...

Analysis of Hero Motocorp's market share, leadership changes, and its strategic challenges in the two-wheeler industry.