Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400 points.</li><li>China's 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively.</li><li>We recommend stocks expected to report 3Q23E earnings growth YoY: ERW, SPRC and ILM.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400 points.China's 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively.We recommend stocks expected to report 3Q23E earnings growth YoY: ERW, SPRC and ILM.

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.</li>
<li>IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.</li>
<li>By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.</li>
</ul>


Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.
By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.


Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

The interest shown by the richest and some of the most influential investors and the success of public-private partnerships in space programs are a reflection of an industry poised for strong growth over the next several years.  The space-tech landscape covers various technologies, but in this note, we focus only on the cosmonautic vehicle and propulsion systems. 
The current top players in propulsion are Ariane Group (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbus-group-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21380:1" rel="noopener">Airbus Group SE (AIR FP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/safran-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21540:1" rel="noopener">Safran SA (SAF FP)</a> joint venture),<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aerojet-rocketdyne-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19120:1" rel="noopener">Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boeing-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11957:1" rel="noopener">Boeing Co (BA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raytheon-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6453:1" rel="noopener">Raytheon Company (RTN US)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12750:1" rel="noopener">United Technologies (UTX US)</a>. The current top players in space vehicles and equipment are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boeing-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11957:1" rel="noopener">Boeing Co (BA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maxar-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28796:1" rel="noopener">Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbus-group-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21380:1" rel="noopener">Airbus Group SE (AIR FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thales-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21483:1" rel="noopener">Thales SA (HO FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lockheed-martin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20372:1" rel="noopener">Lockheed Martin (LMT US)</a>. 
The two new preeminent private players SpaceX and Blue Origin don't feature in the top five players listed above, we discuss the reasons later in the report. 
Unlike e-commerce or software-driven startups, space vehicles and propulsion are relatively capital intensive. So unless the start-ups are led by founders with deep pockets (like Blue Origin) or founders with the ability to raise innovation capital (like SpaceX) it is best to stick to the established names and hope they evolve their business model to adjust for the democratization and marketization of the space industry. That said two private names that screen well are Redwire (vehicles) and Mountain Aerospace Research (propulsion).<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avio-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34833:1" rel="noopener">Avio SPA (AVIO IM)</a>is a small-cap listed company in the top ten for propulsion

The interest shown by the richest and some of the most influential investors and the success of public-private partnerships in space programs are a reflection of an industry poised for strong growth over the next several years.  The space-tech landscape covers various technologies, but in this note, we focus only on the cosmonautic vehicle and propulsion systems. 
The current top players in propulsion are Ariane Group (Airbus Group SE (AIR FP) &amp; Safran SA (SAF FP) joint venture),Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD US), Boeing Co (BA US), Raytheon Company (RTN US), &amp; United Technologies (UTX US). The current top players in space vehicles and equipment are Boeing Co (BA US), Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR US), Airbus Group SE (AIR FP), Thales SA (HO FP), Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) &amp; Lockheed Martin (LMT US). 
The two new preeminent private players SpaceX and Blue Origin don't feature in the top five players listed above, we discuss the reasons later in the report. 
Unlike e-commerce or software-driven startups, space vehicles and propulsion are relatively capital intensive. So unless the start-ups are led by founders with deep pockets (like Blue Origin) or founders with the ability to raise innovation capital (like SpaceX) it is best to stick to the established names and hope they evolve their business model to adjust for the democratization and marketization of the space industry. That said two private names that screen well are Redwire (vehicles) and Mountain Aerospace Research (propulsion).Avio SPA (AVIO IM)is a small-cap listed company in the top ten for propulsion

Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: Space Vehicles and Propulsion Systems

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory</li>
<li>The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July</li>
<li>While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season</li>
<li>The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints</li>
<li>Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory
The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July
While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season
The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints
Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic (private) to add 15 of their $200m jets to the fleet, with the option of adding an additional 35, after certain safety, sustainability and operating metrics are met.

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic (private) to add 15 of their $200m jets to the fleet, with the option of adding an additional 35, after certain safety, sustainability and operating metrics are met.

United States

Honeywell International Inc. is a worldwide diversified technology and manufacturing company providing aerospace products and services, control, sensing and security technologies, turbochargers, automotive products, specialty chemicals, electronic and advanced materials, process technology for refining and petrochemicals, and energy efficient products and solutions.

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Honeywell International (HON US)

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400...

Krungthai XSpring

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: Space Vehicles and Propulsion Systems

The space economy is seeing much more private sector participation. This sets up the sector for strong growth. In this report, we screen for...

Pyari Menon

TMI Snapshot: Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

While the bond market continues to dismiss inflationary pressures, our text mining picked up a recent spike in mentions of supply constraints as...

Elan Gore

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #35

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic

Granite Bay Capital

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