Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Derivatives

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)</a> has corrected 11% in the last few weeks, but its most significant last peak was in August 2025. </li>
<li>The main hypothesis of this insight is that the stock may offer a short-term asymmetric LONG opportunity, to profit from a counter rally.</li>
<li>Analysis conducted with out quantitative model show that last week's correction was shallow so the stock could go lower, but it should be bottoming soon. Broader consensus: strong buy.</li>
</ul>



Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) has corrected 11% in the last few weeks, but its most significant last peak was in August 2025. 
The main hypothesis of this insight is that the stock may offer a short-term asymmetric LONG opportunity, to profit from a counter rally.
Analysis conducted with out quantitative model show that last week's correction was shallow so the stock could go lower, but it should be bottoming soon. Broader consensus: strong buy.


HKEX (388 HK) Tactical Outlook: Potential Rally

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The recent surge in Eurozone sovereign yields, particularly for France, has created pressure on the outlook for some HK-listed companies. </li>
<li>While the 100 largest companies generated an average of only 6% of revenue from Europe, 10 companies derived over 20%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a> group, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global (625 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corporation-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-biologics-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> group, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-holdings-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK)</a> are the top. </li>
</ul>


The recent surge in Eurozone sovereign yields, particularly for France, has created pressure on the outlook for some HK-listed companies. 
While the 100 largest companies generated an average of only 6% of revenue from Europe, 10 companies derived over 20%.

CK Hutchison (1 HK) group, SHEIN Global (625 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Lenovo (992 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) group, and COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK) are the top. 


HK Strategy: Exposure to Europe - Who Are at Risk?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our core value pick; it has a growing share of data revenues, its post-trade revenues are understated and equity fee pressure is easing</li>
<li>We keep Hong Kong Exchange as a buy, with its high share of post-trade revenues; HKEx shares have been highly volatile, but they represent relative value combined with growth potential</li>
<li>Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE) and BSE are new additions to our coverage of EM exchanges with PSE being one to watch; MexBolsa is deep value, but lacking a re-rating catalyst</li>
</ul>


We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our core value pick; it has a growing share of data revenues, its post-trade revenues are understated and equity fee pressure is easing
We keep Hong Kong Exchange as a buy, with its high share of post-trade revenues; HKEx shares have been highly volatile, but they represent relative value combined with growth potential
Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE) and BSE are new additions to our coverage of EM exchanges with PSE being one to watch; MexBolsa is deep value, but lacking a re-rating catalyst


Emerging Market Exchanges – Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) Stands Out

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.</li>
<li>Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.</li>
<li>Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. </li>
</ul>


Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.
Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.
Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. 


Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) operates a range of equity, commodity, fixed income, and currency markets, providing listing, trading, clearing, and settlement services for securities and derivatives. It also functions as a frontline regulator for companies listed in Hong Kong. HKEX was formally established on March 6, 2000, and is headquartered in Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

HKEX (388 HK) Tactical Outlook: Potential Rally

Our model flagged a potential rally for HKEX (388 HK), toward $405.6 (+7.3%), with immediate downside capped at $353. Trade not fully asymmetric,...

Nico Rosti

HK Strategy: Exposure to Europe - Who Are at Risk?

A recent surge in Eurozone sovereign yields will put pressure on some companies. The 100 largest HK companies have only 6% of their revenue from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Emerging Market Exchanges – Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) Stands Out

Our core value pick is B3 in Brazil, with its well spread product offering; buy HKEx with its high post-trade revenues, whilst PSE is one to watch,...

Victor Galliano

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)