Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 24th): China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: The price ratio of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> vs. the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index </a>has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long the  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng (HSI INDEX)</a> and short the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 (NDX INDEX)</a>  targets a 7% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The price ratio of the Hang Seng Index vs. the Nasdaq-100 Index has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long the  Hang Seng (HSI INDEX) and short the Nasdaq-100 (NDX INDEX)  targets a 7% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Hang Seng (HSI) Vs Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Nasdaq Surge Pushes Pair to Three-Sigma Dislocation

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) operates a range of equity, commodity, fixed income, and currency markets, providing listing, trading, clearing, and settlement services for securities and derivatives. It also functions as a frontline regulator for companies listed in Hong Kong. HKEX was formally established on March 6, 2000, and is headquartered in Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

Asia: Developing Leadership

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is...

Vermilion Research

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 24th): China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng (HSI) Vs Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Nasdaq Surge Pushes Pair to Three-Sigma Dislocation

7% target return as the cross-market spread moves to a three-sigma extreme following the Nasdaq rally, highlighting a rare relative value...

Gaudenz Schneider

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this...

Charles De Trenck

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)