Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The announcement of the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.</li>
<li>There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KWEB US</a>.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.</li>
</ul>


The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold Has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And further gains lie ahead in the coming years. Yet, most multi-asset investors still do not have any exposure to the yellow metal.</li>
<li>What if not the Fed but the ECB cuts rates first? Incoming inflation data suggests a 2024 combination of deflation and recession is increasingly likely, leaving the ECB little room but lower rates.</li>
<li>Oil fell as OPEC+ half-heartedly presented another one million barrels per day production cut, which has written ‘voluntary’ all over it.</li>
</ul>


Gold Has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And further gains lie ahead in the coming years. Yet, most multi-asset investors still do not have any exposure to the yellow metal.
What if not the Fed but the ECB cuts rates first? Incoming inflation data suggests a 2024 combination of deflation and recession is increasingly likely, leaving the ECB little room but lower rates.
Oil fell as OPEC+ half-heartedly presented another one million barrels per day production cut, which has written ‘voluntary’ all over it.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Shines, Oil Slumps, and Yields Should Reverse

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> is down 1 week and going towards Q2 support at 17098. Not yet OVERSOLD, but it could be soon, WEEKLY and MONTHLY.</li>
<li>Once the OVERSOLD states begins, it's time to go LONG: the index has been mildy downtrending for 3 months, it looks like it could be bottoming.</li>
<li>If the index reaches below 17112.48 (October's MONTHLY Close), it would be a good area to go LONG, the probability of a rally in December, from there, would be good.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is down 1 week and going towards Q2 support at 17098. Not yet OVERSOLD, but it could be soon, WEEKLY and MONTHLY.
Once the OVERSOLD states begins, it's time to go LONG: the index has been mildy downtrending for 3 months, it looks like it could be bottoming.
If the index reaches below 17112.48 (October's MONTHLY Close), it would be a good area to go LONG, the probability of a rally in December, from there, would be good.


EQD | The Hang Seng Index May Go Higher 2

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Shines, Oil Slumps, and Yields Should Reverse

Gold has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And this asset class is still hugely underowned. This and much more in the Weekly Market...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | The Hang Seng Index May Go Higher 2

The Hang Seng Index is going towards the Q2 support at 17098, not yet OVERSOLD, but it could be soon: if it reaches below 17112.48, it may be a...

Nico Rosti

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Shines, Oil Slumps, and Yields Should Reverse

Gold has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And this asset class is still hugely underowned. This and much more in the Weekly Market...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | The Hang Seng Index May Go Higher 2

​The Hang Seng Index is going towards the Q2 support at 17098, not yet OVERSOLD, but it could be soon: if it reaches below 17112.48, it may be a...

Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index is going towards the Q2 support at 17098, not yet OVERSOLD, but it could be soon: if it reaches below 17112.48, it may be a...