Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk-Reward now skewed towards reward in the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>Barbell strategy with both high-beta and lower volatility dividend stocks.</li>
<li>Some initial ideas included to add or start a portfolio  incorporating HK stocks.</li>
</ul>


Risk-Reward now skewed towards reward in the Hong Kong market.
Barbell strategy with both high-beta and lower volatility dividend stocks.
Some initial ideas included to add or start a portfolio  incorporating HK stocks.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 3

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> index closed December (barely) up, no rally, nullifying completely the MONTHLY time bar count pattern suggesting a LONG MONTHLY trade (the 1-bar reversal has already happened).</li>
<li>The index is approaching the Q3 support at 16449. A WEEKLY bounce is possible from that level, but we don't know if the bounce can last more than 1 week. </li>
<li>If the index keeps going down this week, it could find support between 16500 and 16000. A longer correction could end in the 15800-15600 price area. Use tight stops.</li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX index closed December (barely) up, no rally, nullifying completely the MONTHLY time bar count pattern suggesting a LONG MONTHLY trade (the 1-bar reversal has already happened).
The index is approaching the Q3 support at 16449. A WEEKLY bounce is possible from that level, but we don't know if the bounce can last more than 1 week. 
If the index keeps going down this week, it could find support between 16500 and 16000. A longer correction could end in the 15800-15600 price area. Use tight stops.


EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>It remains possible for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> to generate a positive return in January 2024, given that historically there is a high 73% probability of doing so.</li>
<li>Over the last eleven years, January was also the best-performing one in five of them. Average return for these five was at 7.7%.</li>
<li>The macroenvironment is also conducive for this pattern to sustain - lower USD rates, rebound in Rmb/USD exchange rate, and more supportive measures from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


It remains possible for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) to generate a positive return in January 2024, given that historically there is a high 73% probability of doing so.
Over the last eleven years, January was also the best-performing one in five of them. Average return for these five was at 7.7%.
The macroenvironment is also conducive for this pattern to sustain - lower USD rates, rebound in Rmb/USD exchange rate, and more supportive measures from the Chinese government.


China Strategy: Are We Still Going to Have January Effect in 2024?

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> closed last week down (CC=-1) at 16340.41, it is now down 5 months in a row (CC=-5), very OVERSOLD. </li>
<li>If this week the index keeps going down, it may find support soon and bounce next week. The alternative scenario is a longer correction, 2 weeks.</li>
<li>Support for a LONG trade, possibly pushed by a MONTHLY reversal,  should be found between 16200 and 15950: this is a highly speculative setup given the stubborn downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX closed last week down (CC=-1) at 16340.41, it is now down 5 months in a row (CC=-5), very OVERSOLD. 
If this week the index keeps going down, it may find support soon and bounce next week. The alternative scenario is a longer correction, 2 weeks.
Support for a LONG trade, possibly pushed by a MONTHLY reversal,  should be found between 16200 and 15950: this is a highly speculative setup given the stubborn downtrend.


EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.</li><li>Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.</li><li>Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.</li></ul>

Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.

EM by EM #35:  China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 3

The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could...

Rikki Malik

EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)

The HSI INDEX closed December up, without a rally, wiping away the potential MONTHLY LONG trade (reversal). Currently approaching Q3 support,...

Nico Rosti

China Strategy: Are We Still Going to Have January Effect in 2024?

China's industrial profit growth accelerated to 29.5% YoY in Nov, from just a 2.7% increase in Oct, suggesting initial impacts from the series of...

Osbert Tang, CFA

EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

The HSI INDEX closed down for the 5th consecutive month, very oversold condition. Our pattern models say it may find support and bounce in 1-2...

Nico Rosti

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 3

​The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could...

Rikki Malik

EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)

​The HSI INDEX closed December up, without a rally, wiping away the potential MONTHLY LONG trade (reversal). Currently approaching Q3 support,...

Nico Rosti

China Strategy: Are We Still Going to Have January Effect in 2024?

China's industrial profit growth accelerated to 29.5% YoY in Nov, from just a 2.7% increase in Oct, suggesting initial impacts from the series of...

Osbert Tang, CFA

EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

​The HSI INDEX closed down for the 5th consecutive month, very oversold condition. Our pattern models say it may find support and bounce in 1-2...

Nico Rosti

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could...

The HSI INDEX closed December up, without a rally, wiping away the potential MONTHLY LONG trade (reversal). Currently approaching Q3 support,...

The HSI INDEX closed down for the 5th consecutive month, very oversold condition. Our pattern models say it may find support and bounce in 1-2...