Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.</li>
<li>
Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.</li>
<li>
Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.</li>
</ul>



Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.

Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.

Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.


BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.</li>
<li>Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> next year.</li>
</ul>



China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.


China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.</li>
<li>Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.</li>
<li>Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.</li>
</ul>


November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.


Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.</li>
<li>Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.
Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.
Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.


Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Dec. CATL is a high prob add and has a lock-up expiry tomorrow. Estimated turnover is 1.9% and trade is...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Amid bearish views, a targeted call-overwrite strategy delivers efficient yield through well-chosen strikes and expiries.

Gaudenz Schneider

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement. Given the small increase in shares out but a large increase in index shares,...

Brian Freitas

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

Alibaba and JD.com typically experience post-Singles' Day volatility, with JD.com showing stronger gains. Potential trading opportunities in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Dec. CATL is a high prob add and has a lock-up expiry tomorrow. Estimated turnover is 1.9% and trade is...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Amid bearish views, a targeted call-overwrite strategy delivers efficient yield through well-chosen strikes and expiries.

Gaudenz Schneider

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement. Given the small increase in shares out but a large increase in index shares,...

Brian Freitas

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

​Alibaba and JD.com typically experience post-Singles' Day volatility, with JD.com showing stronger gains. Potential trading opportunities in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba and JD.com typically experience post-Singles' Day volatility, with JD.com showing stronger gains. Potential trading opportunities in the...