Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.</li>
<li>Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> next year.</li>
</ul>



China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.


China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.</li>
<li>Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.</li>
<li>Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.</li>
</ul>


November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.


Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.</li>
<li>Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.
Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.
Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.


Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> , the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> Committee changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices.</li>
<li>
This action is expected to add US$2.7bn of buying to some names- read Travis Lundy's insight for more details on this.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> is currently down 3 weeks, and quite OVERSOLD, buying the dip, at this point makes a lot of sense.
</li>
</ul>


As reported by Travis Lundy , the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) Committee  changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices.

This action is expected to add US$2.7bn of buying to some names- read Travis Lundy's insight for more details on this.
The HSI INDEX is currently down 3 weeks, and quite OVERSOLD, buying the dip, at this point makes a lot of sense.



Hang Seng Index FAF Calculation Change: Buy The Dip!

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the methodology update for the HSIII Index, there could be up to 5 constituent changes in December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$9.8bn (US$1.25bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest beneficiary of the new methodology while there will be large funding outflows for a lot of the current index constituents.</li>
</ul>


Following the methodology update for the HSIII Index, there could be up to 5 constituent changes in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$9.8bn (US$1.25bn).

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest beneficiary of the new methodology while there will be large funding outflows for a lot of the current index constituents.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement. Given the small increase in shares out but a large increase in index shares,...

Brian Freitas

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

Alibaba and JD.com typically experience post-Singles' Day volatility, with JD.com showing stronger gains. Potential trading opportunities in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index FAF Calculation Change: Buy The Dip!

The Hang Seng Index Committee changed the float calculation for Secondary Listings, roughly US$2.7bn of buying in total. The HSI is currently...

Nico Rosti

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade

The methodology update could result in 5 changes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.25bn. There...

Brian Freitas

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement. Given the small increase in shares out but a large increase in index shares,...

Brian Freitas

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

​Alibaba and JD.com typically experience post-Singles' Day volatility, with JD.com showing stronger gains. Potential trading opportunities in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index FAF Calculation Change: Buy The Dip!

​The Hang Seng Index Committee changed the float calculation for Secondary Listings, roughly US$2.7bn of buying in total. The HSI is currently...

Nico Rosti

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade

The methodology update could result in 5 changes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.25bn. There...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba and JD.com typically experience post-Singles' Day volatility, with JD.com showing stronger gains. Potential trading opportunities in the...

The Hang Seng Index Committee changed the float calculation for Secondary Listings, roughly US$2.7bn of buying in total. The HSI is currently...