HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.</li>
<li>Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.</li>
<li>The stronger ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.
Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.
The stronger ones are China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we review strategies to hedge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

Equity Derivatives

Ping An Insurance (H) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks</li>
<li>
Highlights: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>stands out with historically low implied volatility across the term structure. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>is rich in November and December contracts.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks

Highlights: Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)stands out with historically low implied volatility across the term structure. Alibaba (9988 HK)is rich in November and December contracts.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Volatility Cones: Ping An (2318 HK) And Alibaba (9988 HK) Stand Out

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>More government  deals in the critical minerals sector support our outlook</li>
<li>Grasberg mine accident and closure highlights tightness in the copper market</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
More government  deals in the critical minerals sector support our outlook
Grasberg mine accident and closure highlights tightness in the copper market


Overview #36 - AI Hype, Mineral Might, and the Nuclear Revival

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Curator's Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

In this cut, we look at different approaches to hedge BABA exposure, review large recent spin-offs in Asia, and get a download of interesting...

Pranav Rao

Volatility Cones: Ping An (2318 HK) And Alibaba (9988 HK) Stand Out

Volatility cones for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks highlight opportunities in cheap implied volatility in Ping An Insurance, Meituan, and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #36 - AI Hype, Mineral Might, and the Nuclear Revival

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent news impacting commodities

Rikki Malik

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

​3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Curator's Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

In this cut, we look at different approaches to hedge BABA exposure, review large recent spin-offs in Asia, and get a download of interesting...

Pranav Rao

Volatility Cones: Ping An (2318 HK) And Alibaba (9988 HK) Stand Out

​Volatility cones for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks highlight opportunities in cheap implied volatility in Ping An Insurance, Meituan, and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #36 - AI Hype, Mineral Might, and the Nuclear Revival

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent news impacting commodities

Rikki Malik

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Volatility cones for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks highlight opportunities in cheap implied volatility in Ping An Insurance, Meituan, and...