Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.</li>
<li>It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, <strong>the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.</strong>
</li>
<li>It's hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.
It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.

It's hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.


EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Markets have been enjoying the easier financial conditions imposed by a weaker than anticipated inflation print, although yields have found their way back to pre-CPI levels.</li><li>The big ongoing theme in markets seems to be the renewed pressures in commodities, as real world demand for crucial metals like copper and nickel has spurred significant flows into broad commodities.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Markets have been enjoying the easier financial conditions imposed by a weaker than anticipated inflation print, although yields have found their way back to pre-CPI levels.The big ongoing theme in markets seems to be the renewed pressures in commodities, as real world demand for crucial metals like copper and nickel has spurred significant flows into broad commodities.

Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back

<ul><li>The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the trend has just continued.</li><li>The new Chinese efforts to prop up the sentiment in the Real Estate space have so far been successful and it seems like an attempt that is a LOT more serious and sizy than what we have seen so far.</li><li>We are no longer talking about trial balloons or minor twists.</li></ul>

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the trend has just continued.The new Chinese efforts to prop up the sentiment in the Real Estate space have so far been successful and it seems like an attempt that is a LOT more serious and sizy than what we have seen so far.We are no longer talking about trial balloons or minor twists.

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). There is over 3x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Short interest is quite elevated on a lot of stocks both in terms of days of ADV and in terms of free float.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). There is over 3x ADV to buy in Li Auto (2015 HK). 
Short interest is quite elevated on a lot of stocks both in terms of days of ADV and in terms of free float.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

May Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

Nico Rosti

Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Markets have been enjoying the easier financial conditions imposed by a weaker...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the...

Steno Research

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 8% and in a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). Li Auto is the largest passive...

Brian Freitas

May Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

​The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

Nico Rosti

Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Markets have been enjoying the easier financial conditions imposed by a weaker...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the...

Steno Research

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 8% and in a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). Li Auto is the largest passive...

Brian Freitas

The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...