Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>, it seemed appropriate to revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group (53 HK)</a>. Just as well - it is totally bombed out. </li>
<li>I see Guoco's implied stub - net of GuocoLand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-leong-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6602:1" rel="noopener">Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rank-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22117:1" rel="noopener">Rank Group (RNK LN)</a> - at a decade low.</li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family reloaded an Offer for Guoco. Which subsequently failed. Time for the family to step up. Again.</li>
</ul>


After GuocoLand (GUOL SP)'s Offer for Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK), it seemed appropriate to revisit Guoco Group (53 HK). Just as well - it is totally bombed out. 
I see Guoco's implied stub - net of GuocoLand, Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK), Bank of East Asia (23 HK), and Rank Group (RNK LN) - at a decade low.
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family reloaded an Offer for Guoco. Which subsequently failed. Time for the family to step up. Again.


Guoco (53 HK): Now Even A Deeper Value Play

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. </li>
<li>~67%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a> (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a> at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". </li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.</li>
</ul>


I see Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. 
~67%-Held GuocoLand (GUOL SP) (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK) at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". 
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.


Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Apr 3rd. The aggregated short interest is USD512m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Top Glove, Public Bank, Petronas Chemicals, Dialog, YTL Power International.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Apr 3rd. The aggregated short interest is USD512m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Top Glove, Public Bank, Petronas Chemicals, Dialog, YTL Power International.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Apr 3rd): Top Glove, Public Bank, Petronas Chemicals, Dialog

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A new market consultation could increase the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a> constituent stocks from 30 to 50 and introduce capping for the largest stocks.</li>
<li>The change could take place in December 2026 or June 2027 and changing liquidity patterns will affect the final list of additions to the index.</li>
<li>There will be 20 inclusions to the index and there will be a big reduction in the weight of the Financials sector with Real Estate being the biggest winner.</li>
</ul>


A new market consultation could increase the number of Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX) constituent stocks from 30 to 50 and introduce capping for the largest stocks.
The change could take place in December 2026 or June 2027 and changing liquidity patterns will affect the final list of additions to the index.
There will be 20 inclusions to the index and there will be a big reduction in the weight of the Financials sector with Real Estate being the biggest winner.


KLCI Index: Impact of Move from 30 to 50 Stocks

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Mar 27th. The aggregated short interest is USD526m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Public Bank, Malaysian Resources, IJM, FARM FRESH, ITMAX System.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Mar 27th. The aggregated short interest is USD526m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Public Bank, Malaysian Resources, IJM, FARM FRESH, ITMAX System.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Mar 27th): Public Bank, Malaysian Resources, IJM, FARM FRESH

Malaysia

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

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Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK)

Guoco (53 HK): Now Even A Deeper Value Play

I like Guoco here either as a potential privatisation play, or simply as a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of all the key listcos -...

David Blennerhassett

Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Guoco remains a potential privatisation play; and/or a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of the key listcos - around a decade low. The...

David Blennerhassett

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Apr 3rd): Top Glove, Public Bank, Petronas Chemicals, Dialog

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Top Glove, Public Bank, Petronas...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KLCI Index: Impact of Move from 30 to 50 Stocks

The number of index constituents could increase to 50 and 10% capping could be introduced. Liquidity will play a big role in determining which 20...

Brian Freitas

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Mar 27th): Public Bank, Malaysian Resources, IJM, FARM FRESH

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Public Bank, Malaysian Resources, IJM,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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