Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big gains for AMD with analysts more upbeat than last weeks reaction to its AI conference suggests.</li>
<li>Advantest 9.6% yesterday on broker comments should see market hunting for laggards such as Kokusai Electric.</li>
<li>Estee lauder seeing an uptick in China may help beleaguered Shiseido and Kose move higher.</li>
</ul>


Big gains for AMD with analysts more upbeat than last weeks reaction to its AI conference suggests.
Advantest 9.6% yesterday on broker comments should see market hunting for laggards such as Kokusai Electric.
Estee lauder seeing an uptick in China may help beleaguered Shiseido and Kose move higher.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran's Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

<ul>
<li>Semi's and cons disc leading way higher, Japan set for strong start.</li>
<li>Apple breaking downtrend on news its releasing a new game center to better compete against consoles.</li>
<li>Nuclear names surging again which sets a continued positive tone for heavies and related.</li>
</ul>


Semi's and cons disc leading way higher, Japan set for strong start.
Apple breaking downtrend on news its releasing a new game center to better compete against consoles.
Nuclear names surging again which sets a continued positive tone for heavies and related.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On with Investors Liking Optimistic Tone from EU-US Talks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don't replace the CEO.</li>
<li>After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an "MBO" at ¥3,300/share.</li>
<li>Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thinking-about-topcon-7732-and-the-new-meti-enabled-bad-cop-good-cop-routine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bad Cops</a>" but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.</li>
</ul>


The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don't replace the CEO.
After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an "MBO" at ¥3,300/share.
Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the "Bad Cops" but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.


[Japan Activism] - KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

<ul>
<li>A Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/topcon-gets-buyout-offers-from-kkr-eqt-as-japan-m-a-heats-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> today said <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> is weighing takeover bids received from KKR and EQT. ValueAct has been pressuring the company for 18mos (5+% in May23)</li>
<li>ValueAct has apparently been pushing the company to divest assets and concentrate on core ops, or go private (and have someone else do it). </li>
<li>This is further evidence of the METI-enabled "Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine" which could expand M&amp;A and governance activity dramatically. </li>
</ul>


A Bloomberg article today said Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is weighing takeover bids received from KKR and EQT. ValueAct has been pressuring the company for 18mos (5+% in May23)
ValueAct has apparently been pushing the company to divest assets and concentrate on core ops, or go private (and have someone else do it). 
This is further evidence of the METI-enabled "Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine" which could expand M&amp;A and governance activity dramatically. 


Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY1,260 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$856 million. The shares will start trading on 25 October.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rigaku-holdings-268a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161041" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rigaku-holdings-268a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161232" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rigaku-holdings-268a-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161523" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights</a></em></strong>.</li>
<li>The peers have modestly derated since the prospectus was released on 20 September. The IPO price remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) priced its IPO at JPY1,260 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$856 million. The shares will start trading on 25 October.
We previously discussed the IPO in Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case, Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights.
The peers have modestly derated since the prospectus was released on 20 September. The IPO price remains attractive.


Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Japan

HORIBA, Ltd., manufactures and markets measuring instruments and analyzers.  The Company's main product lines are scientific analyzers, environment monitoring, medical analyzers, engine emission analyzers, and semiconductor test equipment. Horiba operates worldwide.

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Horiba Ltd (6856 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran's Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

Japan SPE underperformers may catch a bid. Estee Lauder's jump up has positive implications for Japan's Shiseido and Kose.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On with Investors Liking Optimistic Tone from EU-US Talks

May be a lift for names in Japan with high EU exposures. EU defence spending increasing sentiment for anything related to nuclear plant...

Andrew Jackson

Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine

The METI Guideline on Corporate Takeovers has enabled a BadCop-GoodCop routine to be played out by activists and PE funds. Topcon may be a victim....

Travis Lundy

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 25 October. The peers have modestly derated since the prospectus was released on 20 September. The IPO price...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran's Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

Japan SPE underperformers may catch a bid. Estee Lauder's jump up has positive implications for Japan's Shiseido and Kose.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On with Investors Liking Optimistic Tone from EU-US Talks

May be a lift for names in Japan with high EU exposures. EU defence spending increasing sentiment for anything related to nuclear plant...

Andrew Jackson

[Japan Activism] - KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

The Topcon Deal is out. ¥3,300/share. This may or may not please activists. It is light given extreme confidence in the eyecare biz. But if...

Travis Lundy

Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine

The METI Guideline on Corporate Takeovers has enabled a BadCop-GoodCop routine to be played out by activists and PE funds. Topcon may be a victim....

Travis Lundy

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 25 October. The peers have modestly derated since the prospectus was released on 20 September. The IPO price...

Arun George