Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.</li>
<li>China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.</li>
<li>Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.</li>
</ul>


MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.
China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.
Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.</li>
<li>Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500


Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.</li>
<li>In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.</li>
<li>The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.</li>
</ul>


In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.


[Japan M&A] - KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

<ul>
<li>Big gains for AMD with analysts more upbeat than last weeks reaction to its AI conference suggests.</li>
<li>Advantest 9.6% yesterday on broker comments should see market hunting for laggards such as Kokusai Electric.</li>
<li>Estee lauder seeing an uptick in China may help beleaguered Shiseido and Kose move higher.</li>
</ul>


Big gains for AMD with analysts more upbeat than last weeks reaction to its AI conference suggests.
Advantest 9.6% yesterday on broker comments should see market hunting for laggards such as Kokusai Electric.
Estee lauder seeing an uptick in China may help beleaguered Shiseido and Kose move higher.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran's Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

Japan

HORIBA, Ltd., manufactures and markets measuring instruments and analyzers.  The Company's main product lines are scientific analyzers, environment monitoring, medical analyzers, engine emission analyzers, and semiconductor test equipment. Horiba operates worldwide.

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Horiba Ltd (6856 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

JP SPE rebound momentum likely to drop out following the shaky lead overnight. JR rails and hotel names may trade down following tensions with...

Andrew Jackson

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] - KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

The KKR/JIC/ValueAct deal for Topcon launches tomorrow as the timeline would have expected. There is no deal for Oasis shares that I can see....

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran's Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

Japan SPE underperformers may catch a bid. Estee Lauder's jump up has positive implications for Japan's Shiseido and Kose.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

JP SPE rebound momentum likely to drop out following the shaky lead overnight. JR rails and hotel names may trade down following tensions with...

Andrew Jackson

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] - KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

The KKR/JIC/ValueAct deal for Topcon launches tomorrow as the timeline would have expected. There is no deal for Oasis shares that I can see....

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran's Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

Japan SPE underperformers may catch a bid. Estee Lauder's jump up has positive implications for Japan's Shiseido and Kose.

Andrew Jackson

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...