Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
  <li>Horiba is a global leader in precision analytical and measurement instruments, with a dominant market share of approximately 80% in automotive emission measurement systems. The company's diversified business portfolio, spanning Automotive, Semiconductor, Medical-Diagnostic, Process &amp; Environmental, and Scientific segments, provides resilience against cyclical downturns in any single market.</li>
  <li>The company is strategically focused on high-growth areas, as outlined in its Mid-Long Term Management Plan “MLMAP2028.” Key growth initiatives are centered on three fields: Energy &amp; Environment, Bio &amp; Healthcare, and Advanced Materials &amp; Semiconductors, with ambitious targets for revenue and operating profit.</li>
  <li>Financial performance has been robust, with consistent revenue growth and strong cash flow generation. The company maintains a commitment to shareholder returns, recently updating its plan to increase the target dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40%.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Horiba is a global leader in precision analytical and measurement instruments, with a dominant market share of approximately 80% in automotive emission measurement systems. The company's diversified business portfolio, spanning Automotive, Semiconductor, Medical-Diagnostic, Process &amp; Environmental, and Scientific segments, provides resilience against cyclical downturns in any single market.
  The company is strategically focused on high-growth areas, as outlined in its Mid-Long Term Management Plan “MLMAP2028.” Key growth initiatives are centered on three fields: Energy &amp; Environment, Bio &amp; Healthcare, and Advanced Materials &amp; Semiconductors, with ambitious targets for revenue and operating profit.
  Financial performance has been robust, with consistent revenue growth and strong cash flow generation. The company maintains a commitment to shareholder returns, recently updating its plan to increase the target dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40%.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We have also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Non-Technology pockets have done well in recent weeks as Technology has consolidated, and we believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29 can continue to work.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We have also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.
Non-Technology pockets have done well in recent weeks as Technology has consolidated, and we believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29 can continue to work.


Technology Is Still in Charge Longer-Term But Rotation Trade Has Legs

ASE Technology Holding   / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520) and $141.50 on ACWI-US (up from $134-135.70) continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the ACWI-US and all the other MSCI global indexes (MSCI EAFE, ACWI ex-US, EM) breaking out (more on that below).</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. Actionable themes include Technology and Industrials, focused in EM, Europe, and Japan.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520) and $141.50 on ACWI-US (up from $134-135.70) continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the ACWI-US and all the other MSCI global indexes (MSCI EAFE, ACWI ex-US, EM) breaking out (more on that below).
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. Actionable themes include Technology and Industrials, focused in EM, Europe, and Japan.


Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US stocks rose Friday, extending S&amp;P 500’s fourth straight gain and ninth win in ten sessions, on data supporting a Fed rate cut this week. </li>
<li>Japan accused Chinese jets of targeting its aircraft with fire-control radar near Okinawa; Beijing denied it, tensions rose</li>
<li>Horiba (6856 JP): Oasis discloses 9.9% stake as stock +30% in 3M on AI/semi exposure. Target could be Y100b cash pile. </li>
</ul>


US stocks rose Friday, extending S&amp;P 500’s fourth straight gain and ninth win in ten sessions, on data supporting a Fed rate cut this week. 
Japan accused Chinese jets of targeting its aircraft with fire-control radar near Okinawa; Beijing denied it, tensions rose
Horiba (6856 JP): Oasis discloses 9.9% stake as stock +30% in 3M on AI/semi exposure. Target could be Y100b cash pile. 


Japan

HORIBA, Ltd., manufactures and markets measuring instruments and analyzers.  The Company's main product lines are scientific analyzers, environment monitoring, medical analyzers, engine emission analyzers, and semiconductor test equipment. Horiba operates worldwide.

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Horiba Ltd (6856 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Primer: Horiba Ltd (6856 JP) - Aug 2026

Horiba is a global leader in precision analytical and measurement instruments, with a dominant market share of approximately 80% in automotive...

αSK Primers

Technology Is Still in Charge Longer-Term But Rotation Trade Has Legs

Technology is Still in Charge Longer-Term, But Rotation Trade Has Legs. We believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes (MSCI $ACWI $ACWX $EFA and $EEM) and tons of countries; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan | Rising Tensions

US stocks rise on data supporting Fed rate cut, Japan-China tensions escalate, Horiba worth a look after Oasis stake disclosure.

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Primer: Horiba Ltd (6856 JP) - Aug 2026

Horiba is a global leader in precision analytical and measurement instruments, with a dominant market share of approximately 80% in automotive...

αSK Primers

Technology Is Still in Charge Longer-Term But Rotation Trade Has Legs

Technology is Still in Charge Longer-Term, But Rotation Trade Has Legs. We believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes (MSCI $ACWI $ACWX $EFA and $EEM) and tons of countries; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan | Rising Tensions

​US stocks rise on data supporting Fed rate cut, Japan-China tensions escalate, Horiba worth a look after Oasis stake disclosure.

Mark Chadwick

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

US stocks rise on data supporting Fed rate cut, Japan-China tensions escalate, Horiba worth a look after Oasis stake disclosure.