Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Equity Bottom-Up

Lenovo presents itself as a dynamic IT company, well positioned to benefit from the growth in connectivity. It talks about taking share and record profits. We think the reality is quite different. Lenovo is primarily a hardware manufacturer with commodity margins that grows via acquisitions. It has branched out into data centres and some tech services, but these remain limited and possibly loss making.  The problem is that both liabilities and funding costs are rising. The new US$1bn bond cost 5.875%, exceeding last year’s 4.5% operating return and above our forecast return for FY2021. Cashflow would have been negative without the fall in receivables and the endless fund raising suggests that the cash pile is not all that it seems. SELL.<iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/g-kFNPSUZiE" width="640" height="360"></iframe><a href="https://youtu.be/g-kFNPSUZiE" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>

Lenovo presents itself as a dynamic IT company, well positioned to benefit from the growth in connectivity. It talks about taking share and record profits. We think the reality is quite different. Lenovo is primarily a hardware manufacturer with commodity margins that grows via acquisitions. It has branched out into data centres and some tech services, but these remain limited and possibly loss making.  The problem is that both liabilities and funding costs are rising. The new US$1bn bond cost 5.875%, exceeding last year’s 4.5% operating return and above our forecast return for FY2021. Cashflow would have been negative without the fall in receivables and the endless fund raising suggests that the cash pile is not all that it seems. SELL.

Sell Lenovo (992 HK) FY2020: Falling Revenue, Rising Debts

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<figure>
 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2020-05/SMG-CEO.jpg' alt='SMG-CEO' />
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 <div class='content-caption'>SMG-CEO</div>
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For medical entrepreneur Dr Beng Teck Liang, taking the road less travelled nearly two decades ago has made a difference - and a serendipitous one at that. 
The scion of an urologist, Beng began his career as a Medical Officer with Singapore's Ministry of Health in 1996, after graduating from the UK's University of Manchester Medical School. 
"Although I was trained as a doctor, I wanted something more, so I decided to take a different path from my peers, and move from medicine to business," said the Chief Executive Officer of SGX-listed healthcare services provider Singapore Medical Group Ltd (SMG). 
So he retooled himself with a Master's in Business Administration from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business and a General Management Programme from Harvard Business School. 
After spending the next decade managing multi-billion dollar businesses in information technology and healthcare across Asia Pacific for multinational corporations Hewlett-Packard and General Electric, Beng was ready once again to steer in a new direction. 
"I wanted to build something for myself. And when my partners and I saw the opportunity with SMG at that time, we decided to go for it," he recalled. "We launched a takeover and general offer for the company in 2013, and the rest is, undoubtedly, a beautiful history." 
However, the milestones that SMG achieved in the succeeding seven years did not come easy - hard decisions and sleepless nights were inevitable. 
"SMG had seen better days - its reputation was marred by controversy, business was shrinking, and we were months away from going broke. The stakes were really high at the time," Beng recalled. 
"We had to reorganise teams, cut costs, retrench or fire staff, before we could grow again. During the first year, I was constantly asking myself, What did I get myself into? Am I really going to make this work?" 
Determination and discipline, as well as biting not one, but several bullets, eventually yielded results. "We managed to turn around, slowly but surely, and looking back now, there's a tremendous sense of satisfaction," he added. 
And the proof, as they say, is in the pudding: For the year ended 31 December 2019, SMG reported a 11.3% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record S$94.7 million, driven by growth across all business segments. 
Operating cash flows rose to S$25.7 million for the year from S$16.8 million in FY2018. 
Today, SMG has a market capitalisation of more than S$120 million, up six-fold from its value of about S$20 million before the takeover. 
Incorporated in 2005 and listed on Singapore Exchange since 2009, SMG is a private specialist healthcare provider, with a comprehensive range of multidisciplinary specialties and an extensive network of Specialist and Associate doctors in clinics across Singapore. 
SMG's practices can be found in both central and suburban locations, including Paragon Medical Centre, Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, Gleneagles Medical Centre, Mount Alvernia Medical Centre, as well as Bishan, Bedok, Toa Payoh and Punggol. Its specialties include Aesthetics, Cardiology, Dentistry, Medical Oncology, Obstetrics &amp; Gynaecology, Paediatrics, as well as Plastic and Reconstruction Surgery. Unswerving Focus 
Right from the start, Beng's vision for SMG was crystal-clear: Export the Singapore brand of healthcare - which is well-loved and well-respected in the region - beyond domestic shores. 
"Apart from the biggest players in this space, like Parkway Pantai and Raffles Medical Group, there are no small and medium companies who have a significant pan-Asian presence." 
SMG aims to change that. Today, it has an expanding footprint in Indonesia, a network of clinics in Vietnam, and a robust in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) business in Australia. "We were ahead of our peers in terms of taking that leap and targeting the markets, which are traditional sources of medical tourists in the region," Beng said. 
"Singapore's share of the region's medical tourism pie has been declining - we knew it would end at some point - so our goal was to bring the best-quality healthcare over to these countries. And I think we have made a lot of progress in achieving that." 
Apart from its regional footprint, the Group has also differentiated itself from competitors through its diversification strategy. "Our specialties cut across five verticals - cancer, aesthetics, paediatrics, diagnostics, as well as obstetrics and gynaecology - and we're a significant player in each vertical." 
SMG has also established a wide network of clinics across the city-state - of its 36 clinics, more than two-thirds are in the heartlands. It is incubating other businesses, while some potential verticals, like dental and ophthamology, have yet to grow to a significant size, Beng added. 
In partnership with South Korean healthcare group CHA Health Systems, SMG will actively pursue projects in Vietnam, Singapore, Oceania and other key Pacific Rim markets to address burgeoning demand for fertility services, as the region's birth rates continue to decline. 
The Group will also leverage CHA's expertise in anti-ageing care, as well as Korea's dermatology and aesthetics know-how, to boost its lead in various specialties, including oncology. 
"The CHA-SMG partnership is expected to lay the foundation for Asia-Pacific's first dedicated platform for comprehensive wellness care, spanning the anti-ageing, beauty and preventive care spectrums," he noted. 
Last year, an international unit of CHA invested S$50 million in SMG, raising its stake to 24.04% and becoming the Group's controlling shareholder. Silver Lining 
These days, what keeps the 48-year-old awake in the wee hours is none other than the COVID-19 outbreak. "This virtual enemy has complicated our previously simple growth strategy, which revolved around how fast we could expand, which markets to venture into, and which partners we should bring on board," he said. 
Lockdowns across the region have prevented ASEAN patients from carrying out their normal clinic visits. "COVID-19 will definitely impact us - about 20% to 30% of our business comes from ASEAN." 
Thankfully, there is a silver lining. "We unveiled our telehealth business at the beginning of last year, and are starting to reap the benefits of that," he noted. Patients can seek specialist care via tele-consultation through SMG's HiDoc platform, which is easily accessed via a mobile app or website. 
"We see huge opportunities in this space as medical tourism grinds to a halt from the pandemic." 
Looking back, Beng attributes SMG's success to key decisions made seven years ago, one of them being a "Buy and Grow" strategy. "Acquisitions helped us scale up and provided a catalyst for growth. Our verticals doubled or tripled in size after we came across opportunities to acquire clinics, and acted quickly," he said. 
"But we've never rested on our laurels - we're always mindful that we still need to maintain organic growth within our networks by opening new clinics and adding specialists." 
Between 2015 and 2019, SMG added more than 20 specialists to its fold, reflecting an 85% increase to 48 from 26. The pool has been expanding every year, largely through acquisitions of medical practices and the hiring of specialists from the public healthcare sector. 
At the end of the day, ushering SMG into its next phase of growth - and on the global stage, no less - is what keeps this father of two boys, aged 12 and 15, going. 
What's exciting is the fact that the Group has the opportunity to change how healthcare is perceived and delivered, both in this region and beyond, said Beng. 
"We're one of the biggest movers and shakers in the healthcare space now, because of the track record we've established over the last seven years," he pointed out. 
"SMG is part of a global collaborative platform that's growing, not just in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, but in North Asia, and also further afield in the US and elsewhere." Singapore Medical Group Ltd 
Incorporated in 2005 and listed on SGX since 2009, Singapore Medical Group (SMG) is a private specialist healthcare provider with a comprehensive range of multidisciplinary specialties, and an extensive network of Specialist and Associate doctors located in clinics across Singapore. 
SMG's practices can be found at Paragon Medical Centre, Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, Novena Medical Center, OUE Downtown Gallery, Gleneagles Medical Centre, Farrer Park Medical Centre@Connexion, and Mount Alvernia Medical Centre. Suburban locations include Bishan, Bedok, Toa Payoh and Punggol. Its specialties include Aesthetics, Cardiology, Dentistry, Medical Oncology, Obstetrics &amp; Gynaecology, Paediatrics, as well as Plastic and Reconstruction Surgery. 
The company website is: <a href="http://edm.sgx.com/a/hBetL0iB86%24MfB91z9HAAPJbdH7/link8">www.smg.sg</a>.

Click <a href="http://edm.sgx.com/a/hBetL0iB86%24MfB91z9HAAPJbdH7/link9">here</a> for the company's StockFacts page. 
For the full year ended 31 December 2019 financial results, click <a href="http://edm.sgx.com/a/hBetL0iB86%24MfB91z9HAAPJbdH7/link10">here</a>.
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    SMG-CEO


For medical entrepreneur Dr Beng Teck Liang, taking the road less travelled nearly two decades ago has made a difference - and a serendipitous one at that.  
The scion of an urologist, Beng began his career as a Medical Officer with Singapore's Ministry of Health in 1996, after graduating from the UK's University of Manchester Medical School.  
"Although I was trained as a doctor, I wanted something more, so I decided to take a different path from my peers, and move from medicine to business," said the Chief Executive Officer of SGX-listed healthcare services provider Singapore Medical Group Ltd (SMG).  
So he retooled himself with a Master's in Business Administration from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business and a General Management Programme from Harvard Business School.  
After spending the next decade managing multi-billion dollar businesses in information technology and healthcare across Asia Pacific for multinational corporations Hewlett-Packard and General Electric, Beng was ready once again to steer in a new direction.  
"I wanted to build something for myself. And when my partners and I saw the opportunity with SMG at that time, we decided to go for it," he recalled. "We launched a takeover and general offer for the company in 2013, and the rest is, undoubtedly, a beautiful history."  
However, the milestones that SMG achieved in the succeeding seven years did not come easy - hard decisions and sleepless nights were inevitable.  
"SMG had seen better days - its reputation was marred by controversy, business was shrinking, and we were months away from going broke. The stakes were really high at the time," Beng recalled.  
"We had to reorganise teams, cut costs, retrench or fire staff, before we could grow again. During the first year, I was constantly asking myself, What did I get myself into? Am I really going to make this work?"  
Determination and discipline, as well as biting not one, but several bullets, eventually yielded results. "We managed to turn around, slowly but surely, and looking back now, there's a tremendous sense of satisfaction," he added.  
And the proof, as they say, is in the pudding: For the year ended 31 December 2019, SMG reported a 11.3% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record S$94.7 million, driven by growth across all business segments. 
Operating cash flows rose to S$25.7 million for the year from S$16.8 million in FY2018.  
Today, SMG has a market capitalisation of more than S$120 million, up six-fold from its value of about S$20 million before the takeover.  
Incorporated in 2005 and listed on Singapore Exchange since 2009, SMG is a private specialist healthcare provider, with a comprehensive range of multidisciplinary specialties and an extensive network of Specialist and Associate doctors in clinics across Singapore.  
SMG's practices can be found in both central and suburban locations, including Paragon Medical Centre, Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, Gleneagles Medical Centre, Mount Alvernia Medical Centre, as well as Bishan, Bedok, Toa Payoh and Punggol. Its specialties include Aesthetics, Cardiology, Dentistry, Medical Oncology, Obstetrics &amp; Gynaecology, Paediatrics, as well as Plastic and Reconstruction Surgery.  Unswerving Focus  
Right from the start, Beng's vision for SMG was crystal-clear: Export the Singapore brand of healthcare - which is well-loved and well-respected in the region - beyond domestic shores.  
"Apart from the biggest players in this space, like Parkway Pantai and Raffles Medical Group, there are no small and medium companies who have a significant pan-Asian presence."  
SMG aims to change that. Today, it has an expanding footprint in Indonesia, a network of clinics in Vietnam, and a robust in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) business in Australia. "We were ahead of our peers in terms of taking that leap and targeting the markets, which are traditional sources of medical tourists in the region," Beng said.  
"Singapore's share of the region's medical tourism pie has been declining - we knew it would end at some point - so our goal was to bring the best-quality healthcare over to these countries. And I think we have made a lot of progress in achieving that."  
Apart from its regional footprint, the Group has also differentiated itself from competitors through its diversification strategy. "Our specialties cut across five verticals - cancer, aesthetics, paediatrics, diagnostics, as well as obstetrics and gynaecology - and we're a significant player in each vertical."  
SMG has also established a wide network of clinics across the city-state - of its 36 clinics, more than two-thirds are in the heartlands. It is incubating other businesses, while some potential verticals, like dental and ophthamology, have yet to grow to a significant size, Beng added.  
In partnership with South Korean healthcare group CHA Health Systems, SMG will actively pursue projects in Vietnam, Singapore, Oceania and other key Pacific Rim markets to address burgeoning demand for fertility services, as the region's birth rates continue to decline.  
The Group will also leverage CHA's expertise in anti-ageing care, as well as Korea's dermatology and aesthetics know-how, to boost its lead in various specialties, including oncology.  
"The CHA-SMG partnership is expected to lay the foundation for Asia-Pacific's first dedicated platform for comprehensive wellness care, spanning the anti-ageing, beauty and preventive care spectrums," he noted.  
Last year, an international unit of CHA invested S$50 million in SMG, raising its stake to 24.04% and becoming the Group's controlling shareholder.  Silver Lining  
These days, what keeps the 48-year-old awake in the wee hours is none other than the COVID-19 outbreak. "This virtual enemy has complicated our previously simple growth strategy, which revolved around how fast we could expand, which markets to venture into, and which partners we should bring on board," he said.  
Lockdowns across the region have prevented ASEAN patients from carrying out their normal clinic visits. "COVID-19 will definitely impact us - about 20% to 30% of our business comes from ASEAN."  
Thankfully, there is a silver lining. "We unveiled our telehealth business at the beginning of last year, and are starting to reap the benefits of that," he noted. Patients can seek specialist care via tele-consultation through SMG's HiDoc platform, which is easily accessed via a mobile app or website.  
"We see huge opportunities in this space as medical tourism grinds to a halt from the pandemic."  
Looking back, Beng attributes SMG's success to key decisions made seven years ago, one of them being a "Buy and Grow" strategy. "Acquisitions helped us scale up and provided a catalyst for growth. Our verticals doubled or tripled in size after we came across opportunities to acquire clinics, and acted quickly," he said.  
"But we've never rested on our laurels - we're always mindful that we still need to maintain organic growth within our networks by opening new clinics and adding specialists."  
Between 2015 and 2019, SMG added more than 20 specialists to its fold, reflecting an 85% increase to 48 from 26. The pool has been expanding every year, largely through acquisitions of medical practices and the hiring of specialists from the public healthcare sector.  
At the end of the day, ushering SMG into its next phase of growth - and on the global stage, no less - is what keeps this father of two boys, aged 12 and 15, going.  
What's exciting is the fact that the Group has the opportunity to change how healthcare is perceived and delivered, both in this region and beyond, said Beng.  
"We're one of the biggest movers and shakers in the healthcare space now, because of the track record we've established over the last seven years," he pointed out.  
"SMG is part of a global collaborative platform that's growing, not just in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, but in North Asia, and also further afield in the US and elsewhere."  Singapore Medical Group Ltd  
Incorporated in 2005 and listed on SGX since 2009, Singapore Medical Group (SMG) is a private specialist healthcare provider with a comprehensive range of multidisciplinary specialties, and an extensive network of Specialist and Associate doctors located in clinics across Singapore.  
SMG's practices can be found at Paragon Medical Centre, Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, Novena Medical Center, OUE Downtown Gallery, Gleneagles Medical Centre, Farrer Park Medical Centre@Connexion, and Mount Alvernia Medical Centre. Suburban locations include Bishan, Bedok, Toa Payoh and Punggol. Its specialties include Aesthetics, Cardiology, Dentistry, Medical Oncology, Obstetrics &amp; Gynaecology, Paediatrics, as well as Plastic and Reconstruction Surgery.  
The company website is: www.smg.sg.

Click here for the company's StockFacts page.  
For the full year ended 31 December 2019 financial results, click here.



Singapore Medical Group Eyes Global Stage

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Lenovo, the world’s largest personal computer vendor (by unit sales) is currently trading close to its 12-month low at HK$3.89 per share. The company shares have lost around 44% of their value over the last 12-months from HK$7 per share to HK$3.89 per share (as at 30th March 2020).</li>
<li>Company earnings have been volatile over the years due to the cyclicality of its business (PCs and smart devices) and at the same time, the company’s product roll-outs in its mobile business (Motorola) have failed to impress tech savvy customers and as a result, failed to gain share in the market.</li>
<li>The PC and smart devices business remains a solid cash cow for Lenovo while its mobile business continues to decline. Lenovo’s data center business is the only promising business in its portfolio, however, the data center operations are still too small to make a large impact on the company’s earnings and valuation.</li>
<li>It makes sense for us to call Lenovo “a Fallen Angel” as the company has failed to make use of the growth opportunities in the market and has stumbled when trying to impress investors due to delays in product roll-outs, heavy competition in the markets in which the company operates, high leverage and exposure to the ongoing trade war between the US and China.</li>
<li>We expect the company to start generating strong cash flows in the next 2-3 years and we believe it would be an attractive candidate based on potential future cash flow generation.</li>
</ul>


Lenovo, the world’s largest personal computer vendor (by unit sales) is currently trading close to its 12-month low at HK$3.89 per share. The company shares have lost around 44% of their value over the last 12-months from HK$7 per share to HK$3.89 per share (as at 30th March 2020).
Company earnings have been volatile over the years due to the cyclicality of its business (PCs and smart devices) and at the same time, the company’s product roll-outs in its mobile business (Motorola) have failed to impress tech savvy customers and as a result, failed to gain share in the market.
The PC and smart devices business remains a solid cash cow for Lenovo while its mobile business continues to decline. Lenovo’s data center business is the only promising business in its portfolio, however, the data center operations are still too small to make a large impact on the company’s earnings and valuation.
It makes sense for us to call Lenovo “a Fallen Angel” as the company has failed to make use of the growth opportunities in the market and has stumbled when trying to impress investors due to delays in product roll-outs, heavy competition in the markets in which the company operates, high leverage and exposure to the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
We expect the company to start generating strong cash flows in the next 2-3 years and we believe it would be an attractive candidate based on potential future cash flow generation.


Lenovo: Does This Fallen Angel's Redemption Lie in an LBO

<ul><li>Xerox announced on Tuesday (31st March) that it is withdrawing its tender offer to acquire HP and will no longer seek to nominate its candidates for HP’s board of directors.</li></ul><blockquote>
“The current global health crisis and resulting macroeconomic and market turmoil caused by COVID-19 have created an environment that is not conducive to Xerox continuing to pursue an acquisition of HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) (“HP”). Accordingly, we are withdrawing our tender offer to acquire HP and will no longer seek to nominate our slate of highly qualified candidates to HP’s Board of Directors”
- Xerox
</blockquote><ul>
<li>The company has mentioned that it is prioritising the health, safety and well-being of its employees, customers, partners and stakeholders and its broader response to the pandemic over and above all other considerations.</li>
<li>As we highlighted in our previous insights on Xerox-HP deal, the deal was too big for Xerox who has a market cap of around US$4bn while HP has a market cap of around US$24bn. Though Xerox reiterated that it has obtained the financing required to fund the deal, we believe the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economic uncertainty would have made it difficult for Xerox to obtain the necessary funds.</li>
</ul>

Xerox announced on Tuesday (31st March) that it is withdrawing its tender offer to acquire HP and will no longer seek to nominate its candidates for HP’s board of directors.
“The current global health crisis and resulting macroeconomic and market turmoil caused by COVID-19 have created an environment that is not conducive to Xerox continuing to pursue an acquisition of HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) (“HP”). Accordingly, we are withdrawing our tender offer to acquire HP and will no longer seek to nominate our slate of highly qualified candidates to HP’s Board of Directors”
- Xerox

The company has mentioned that it is prioritising the health, safety and well-being of its employees, customers, partners and stakeholders and its broader response to the pandemic over and above all other considerations.
As we highlighted in our previous insights on Xerox-HP deal, the deal was too big for Xerox who has a market cap of around US$4bn while HP has a market cap of around US$24bn. Though Xerox reiterated that it has obtained the financing required to fund the deal, we believe the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economic uncertainty would have made it difficult for Xerox to obtain the necessary funds.


Xerox Calls Off Its Bid for HP Amid COVID-19 Pandemic; A 5-Months Long Battle Comes to an End

Receivables have grown so much faster than revenue that we worry reported profit is an illusion. Rising receivables leave Lenovo vulnerable to default.Liquidity may be tight because their short term facilities are largely used up and payables days are rising. Lenovo seems to be very reliant on its suppliers for credit. In FY2020, cashflow will only cover costs, if receivables get paid. Otherwise, Lenovo will be out of cash.Ignore reported cash because of there is a $4bn short term asset/liability deficit. If customers default and/or supply is constrained due to COVID19, Lenovo would struggle and we are not convinced China will bail out the minorities.

Receivables have grown so much faster than revenue that we worry reported profit is an illusion. Rising receivables leave Lenovo vulnerable to default.Liquidity may be tight because their short term facilities are largely used up and payables days are rising. Lenovo seems to be very reliant on its suppliers for credit. In FY2020, cashflow will only cover costs, if receivables get paid. Otherwise, Lenovo will be out of cash.Ignore reported cash because of there is a $4bn short term asset/liability deficit. If customers default and/or supply is constrained due to COVID19, Lenovo would struggle and we are not convinced China will bail out the minorities.  

Lenovo (992 HK): Starting to Look like Fraud. Fair Value HK$3.35 40% Downside

United States

HP Inc. provides imaging and printing systems, computing systems, mobile devices, solutions, and services for business and home. The Company offers products which includes laser and inkjet printers, scanners, copiers and faxes, personal computers, workstations, storage solutions, and other computing and printing systems. HP sells its products worldwide.

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Hewlett Packard Co (HPQ US)

Sell Lenovo (992 HK) FY2020: Falling Revenue, Rising Debts

Lenovo presents itself as a dynamic IT company, well positioned to benefit from the growth in connectivity. It talks about taking share and record...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Singapore Medical Group Eyes Global Stage

For medical entrepreneur Dr Beng Teck Liang, taking the road less travelled nearly two decades ago has made a difference - and...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Lenovo: Does This Fallen Angel's Redemption Lie in an LBO

Lenovo, the world’s largest personal computer vendor (by unit sales) is currently trading close to its 12-month low at HK$3.89 per share. The...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Xerox Calls Off Its Bid for HP Amid COVID-19 Pandemic; A 5-Months Long Battle Comes to an End

Xerox announced on Tuesday (31st March) that it is withdrawing its tender offer to acquire HP and will no longer seek to nominate its candidates...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Lenovo (992 HK): Starting to Look like Fraud. Fair Value HK$3.35 40% Downside

Receivables have grown so much faster than revenue that we worry reported profit is an illusion. Rising receivables leave Lenovo vulnerable to...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

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