Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.</li>
<li>We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  </li>
<li>Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.</li>
</ul>


The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.
We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  
Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.


Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

<ul>
<li>Scott’s core lawn care business is caught between rising fertilizer prices and declining demand after the Covid ‘fix-up-your-home’ wave began to dissipate.  </li>
<li>Fertilizer prices have spiked, hurting margins and “even if commodities start to ease, it will take a few years to claw back the margin we’ve lost”</li>
<li>At the same time, SMG’s cannabis growth strategy has fallen apart leading to a 65% decline in sales last quarter.  </li>
</ul>


Scott’s core lawn care business is caught between rising fertilizer prices and declining demand after the Covid ‘fix-up-your-home’ wave began to dissipate.  
Fertilizer prices have spiked, hurting margins and “even if commodities start to ease, it will take a few years to claw back the margin we’ve lost”
At the same time, SMG’s cannabis growth strategy has fallen apart leading to a 65% decline in sales last quarter.  


Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG): Sell Short; Price: $84.57; August 17, 2022

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cannabis-stocks-esg-considerations-for-a-budding-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56947" rel="noopener">Cannabis Stocks: ESG Considerations for a Budding Industry</a>, I addressed ESG considerations related to the legal cannabis industry. The cannabis industry is an emergent subject of debate in ESG circles, and a real conundrum from an ESG perspective. That Insight covered two aspects:<ol>
<li>
Classification: Whether cannabis stocks should be considered "sin stocks" (along with alcohol, gambling, adult entertainment, and tobacco). This is the crux of most discussions to date, and primarily affects exclusionary screening typical of socially-responsible investing (SRI).</li>
<li>
ESG Concerns: Regardless of classification, the cannabis industry presents a multitude of ESG concerns relevant to general ESG investing. Environmental concerns dominate, and are mostly negative. Social and Governance issues are more balanced, and more company-specific.</li>
</ol>This Insight takes that conversation a step further, assessing the current cadre of cannabis-related stocks and identifying the most ESG-friendly among them. It is a subjective assessment, albeit one based on generally accepted criteria (based on the little discourse the ESG world has held so far).

In Cannabis Stocks: ESG Considerations for a Budding Industry, I addressed ESG considerations related to the legal cannabis industry. The cannabis industry is an emergent subject of debate in ESG circles, and a real conundrum from an ESG perspective. That Insight covered two aspects:

Classification: Whether cannabis stocks should be considered "sin stocks" (along with alcohol, gambling, adult entertainment, and tobacco). This is the crux of most discussions to date, and primarily affects exclusionary screening typical of socially-responsible investing (SRI).

ESG Concerns: Regardless of classification, the cannabis industry presents a multitude of ESG concerns relevant to general ESG investing. Environmental concerns dominate, and are mostly negative. Social and Governance issues are more balanced, and more company-specific.
This Insight takes that conversation a step further, assessing the current cadre of cannabis-related stocks and identifying the most ESG-friendly among them. It is a subjective assessment, albeit one based on generally accepted criteria (based on the little discourse the ESG world has held so far).

Cannabis Stocks: Some of the More ESG-Friendly Stocks in This Budding Industry

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive.

Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive.

United States

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company markets branded consumer lawn and garden products, as well as a full range of products for professional horticulture. The Company manufactures and markets fertilizers, pest controls, plant foods, gardening soils, grass seed, and other products in North America and Europe. Scotts Miracle-Gro also provides lawn service in the United States.

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A (SMG US)

Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Short names on our workbench (under research) provide a window into our idea generation process. Today, we are flagging They are: Scotts Miracle...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG): Sell Short; Price: $84.57; August 17, 2022

Scott’s lawn care business faces declining demand after Covid. Fertilizer prices have spiked, hurting margins. SMG’s cannabis growth strategy has...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Cannabis Stocks: Some of the More ESG-Friendly Stocks in This Budding Industry

This Insight assessing the current cadre of cannabis stocks and identifies the most ESG-friendly among them. Most being the operative word, because...

Kyle Rudden

The Transcript 05.10.21: Pent-up Demand

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of...

The Transcript

Breakaway Gaps In Place

Market dynamics are not perfect, but the fact is that “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist. The positives continue to outweigh the negatives...

Vermilion Research

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