Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Investing, Fraud and Fun with Language Models, Bedrock AI

Bedrock AI

Investing, Fraud and Fun with Language Models

Bedrock AI is a web-based equity research portal. Our software extracts red flags from SEC filings that are predictive of downside risk. Explore real-time analysis of annual and quarterly statements, 8-Ks, prospectuses, SEC comment letters and more for over 7,000 tickers. Analysis is served without human intervention. Quantamental investing is transforming the way investors see the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>William Companies $WMB believes more Republican control can resolve permitting issues, which would benefit the power industry and the energy infrastructure business.</li><li>A favorable tax outcome will also be “a very huge positive to [its] guidance in the immediate term”. </li><li>Energy Transfer $ET said the Trump administration will bring “a breath of fresh air.” Nov 06: Q3'24</li></ul>

William Companies $WMB believes more Republican control can resolve permitting issues, which would benefit the power industry and the energy infrastructure business.A favorable tax outcome will also be “a very huge positive to [its] guidance in the immediate term”. Energy Transfer $ET said the Trump administration will bring “a breath of fresh air.” Nov 06: Q3'24

Most executives upbeat after Trump election

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Recommendation to short shares of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on excessive leverage from Hawthorne hydroponics subsidiary's cannabis market bet</li><li>Core consumer lawn care business facing increased competition, pricing pressure, and challenges in driving volume growth</li><li>Projected 40% downside for SMG due to precarious financial position and reliance on key retailers and seasonal revenue</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Recommendation to short shares of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on excessive leverage from Hawthorne hydroponics subsidiary's cannabis market betCore consumer lawn care business facing increased competition, pricing pressure, and challenges in driving volume growthProjected 40% downside for SMG due to precarious financial position and reliance on key retailers and seasonal revenueThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) - Friday, Apr 5, 2024

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>Scott’s core lawn care business is caught between rising fertilizer prices and declining demand after the Covid ‘fix-up-your-home’ wave began to dissipate.  </li>
<li>Fertilizer prices have spiked, hurting margins and “even if commodities start to ease, it will take a few years to claw back the margin we’ve lost”</li>
<li>At the same time, SMG’s cannabis growth strategy has fallen apart leading to a 65% decline in sales last quarter.  </li>
</ul>


Scott’s core lawn care business is caught between rising fertilizer prices and declining demand after the Covid ‘fix-up-your-home’ wave began to dissipate.  
Fertilizer prices have spiked, hurting margins and “even if commodities start to ease, it will take a few years to claw back the margin we’ve lost”
At the same time, SMG’s cannabis growth strategy has fallen apart leading to a 65% decline in sales last quarter.  


Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG): Sell Short; Price: $84.57; August 17, 2022

<ul>
<li>The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.</li>
<li>We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  </li>
<li>Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.</li>
</ul>


The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.
We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  
Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.


Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

United States

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company markets branded consumer lawn and garden products, as well as a full range of products for professional horticulture. The Company manufactures and markets fertilizers, pest controls, plant foods, gardening soils, grass seed, and other products in North America and Europe. Scotts Miracle-Gro also provides lawn service in the United States.

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A (SMG US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Most executives upbeat after Trump election

William Companies $WMB believes more Republican control can resolve permitting issues, which would benefit the power industry and the energy...

Bedrock AI

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) - Friday, Apr 5, 2024

Recommendation to short shares of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on excessive leverage from Hawthorne hydroponics subsidiary's cannabis market bet

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG): Sell Short; Price: $84.57; August 17, 2022

Scott’s lawn care business faces declining demand after Covid. Fertilizer prices have spiked, hurting margins. SMG’s cannabis growth strategy has...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Short names on our workbench (under research) provide a window into our idea generation process. Today, we are flagging They are: Scotts Miracle...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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