HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>YTD, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has gained 4.8%, possibly kick-starting the January effect for 2026.</li>
<li>Over the last 13 years, January has been the only month to register as the best one in a year five times, with an average return of 6.7%. </li>
<li>If we count all the months of January since 2014, its average return is 1.6%, putting it the third-best-return month after July and November.</li>
</ul>


YTD, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has gained 4.8%, possibly kick-starting the January effect for 2026.
Over the last 13 years, January has been the only month to register as the best one in a year five times, with an average return of 6.7%. 
If we count all the months of January since 2014, its average return is 1.6%, putting it the third-best-return month after July and November.


China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Macquarie's UI Boustead is aiming for a $700 million IPO in Singapore to boost its capital.</li><li>OUE REIT is negotiating to acquire a significant $360 million stake in Sydney's Salesforce Tower.</li><li>Mitsubishi Estate sold its $403 million stake in a London office building to Daibiru, reflecting market shifts.</li></ul>

Macquarie's UI Boustead is aiming for a $700 million IPO in Singapore to boost its capital.OUE REIT is negotiating to acquire a significant $360 million stake in Sydney's Salesforce Tower.Mitsubishi Estate sold its $403 million stake in a London office building to Daibiru, reflecting market shifts.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Jan-2026): Macquarie’s UI Boustead aims for $700M Singapore IPO.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans </li>
<li>Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs</li>
<li>Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs</li>
</ul>


HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans 
Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs
Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs


HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

<ul>
<li>In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. </li>
<li>The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a> also have net cash. </li>
</ul>


In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. 
The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.

China Mobile (941 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) also have net cash. 


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR, WEICHAI POWER, BIDU.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR, WEICHAI POWER, BIDU.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), BIDU

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings Plc is a British universal bank and financial services group operating worldwide. It offers a wide range of services including retail and personal banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking, and markets and securities services. The company was founded in British Hong Kong in 1865 and is headquartered in London, England.

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HSBC (HSBA LN)

China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Jan-2026): Macquarie’s UI Boustead aims for $700M Singapore IPO.

Macquarie's UI Boustead aims for a $700M IPO, OUE REIT seeks a $360M Sydney stake, while various other significant real estate transactions...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

HSBC interview with Bloomberg shows another set of cost-cutting efforts. For anybody following this bank for ~20 years, a pattern is clear. It's...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Strategy: Focusing Back on Yields

High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), BIDU

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

​The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Jan-2026): Macquarie’s UI Boustead aims for $700M Singapore IPO.

Macquarie's UI Boustead aims for a $700M IPO, OUE REIT seeks a $360M Sydney stake, while various other significant real estate transactions...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

HSBC interview with Bloomberg shows another set of cost-cutting efforts. For anybody following this bank for ~20 years, a pattern is clear. It's...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Strategy: Focusing Back on Yields

​High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), BIDU

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...