Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405 points.</li><li>We recommend speculating on stocks benefiting from the depreciation of the baht (exports and tourism sectors) and stocks related to government policies (construction services and construction materials sectors).</li><li>We anticipate positive indicators from the growth of both the Thai and Japanese economies, which are poised to strengthen throughout the remainder of the year, fueled by signs of global economic recovery.</li></ul>

KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405 points.We recommend speculating on stocks benefiting from the depreciation of the baht (exports and tourism sectors) and stocks related to government policies (construction services and construction materials sectors).We anticipate positive indicators from the growth of both the Thai and Japanese economies, which are poised to strengthen throughout the remainder of the year, fueled by signs of global economic recovery.

Monthly Report: May 2024: Sideways Movement, With the Support at 1,350/1,330 Points and the Resistance at 1,385/1,405 Points

<ul>
<li>Wells Fargo has seen its net interest income growth move to -8.3% YoY in 1Q24 from +8.3% YoY in 1Q23</li>
<li>The rate of net interest income growth at JPMorgan has nearly halved in the most recent quarter, to +11.4% YoY</li>
<li>Banks' high-frequency data on balance sheets suggest that there will remain worsening growth rates of net interest income for US banks</li>
</ul>


Wells Fargo has seen its net interest income growth move to -8.3% YoY in 1Q24 from +8.3% YoY in 1Q23
The rate of net interest income growth at JPMorgan has nearly halved in the most recent quarter, to +11.4% YoY
Banks' high-frequency data on balance sheets suggest that there will remain worsening growth rates of net interest income for US banks


US Banks - Faltering Net Interest Income Growth Is Well in Place, But This Should Worsen

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>PE /In Depth: Caught between Beijing and Washington, PE majors split China-U.S. teams</li><li>China-India /: China, India militaries to ‘turn the page’ on border issues</li><li>HSBC /: HSBC takes $3 billion charge on BoCom holdings</li></ul>

PE /In Depth: Caught between Beijing and Washington, PE majors split China-U.S. teamsChina-India /: China, India militaries to ‘turn the page’ on border issuesHSBC /: HSBC takes $3 billion charge on BoCom holdings

CX Daily: Caught Between Beijing and Washington, PE Majors Split China-U.S. Teams 

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is a British universal bank and financial services group that provides banking and financial products and services worldwide. It offers retail, commercial and institutional banking, global banking and markets, wealth management, and private banking. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.

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HSBC (HSBC US)

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

Monthly Report: May 2024: Sideways Movement, With the Support at 1,350/1,330 Points and the Resistance at 1,385/1,405 Points

KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - Faltering Net Interest Income Growth Is Well in Place, But This Should Worsen

US bank's are now reporting 1Q24 data with far worse net interest income growth, which should not surprise our readers, and this should only...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

CX Daily: Caught Between Beijing and Washington, PE Majors Split China-U.S. Teams

PE / In Depth: Caught between Beijing and Washington, PE majors split China-U. S. teams China’s private equity market has faced heightened...

Caixin Global

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