Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 13th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 13th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 13th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

<ul>
<li>With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. </li>
<li>Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans</li>
</ul>


With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. 
Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans


China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The HSI has declined 3% MTD, but based on history, there is more downside risk. Over the last 10 years, the Index has only returned positively in two September.</li>
<li>October is also not good, and the Index declined an average of 1.9% in the month since 2019. However, November and December are normally the best-performing ones. </li>
<li>Prudent investors should stay conservative until October. By the end of next month, there are opportunities to increase position to take hold of the potential year-end rally. </li>
</ul>


The HSI has declined 3% MTD, but based on history, there is more downside risk. Over the last 10 years, the Index has only returned positively in two September.
October is also not good, and the Index declined an average of 1.9% in the month since 2019. However, November and December are normally the best-performing ones. 
Prudent investors should stay conservative until October. By the end of next month, there are opportunities to increase position to take hold of the potential year-end rally. 


China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 13th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 13th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

​It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...