Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Expectation management of any stimulus package gives the potential to overdeliver</li>
<li>Recent economic data is surprising to the upside in China</li>
<li>Divergent investor viewpoints and Trump's win likely mean offshore markets will be more volatile than onshore</li>
</ul>


Expectation management of any stimulus package gives the potential to overdeliver
Recent economic data is surprising to the upside in China
Divergent investor viewpoints and Trump's win likely mean offshore markets will be more volatile than onshore


Much Ado About Nothing -Or Why the China Stimulus Package Doesn’t Matter as Much as Investors Think

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corp-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a> has received CSRC approval for its merger with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a>, but its share price has fallen. </li>
<li>Concerns about EPS dilution are valid, as CDS' and DXS' 1H26 earnings are weaker than CICC's. However, amid increased industry consolidation, the merger is strategically important.</li>
<li>CICC now sits at 0.57x 12-month forward P/B, just the average since 2021. We expect the merger to enhance book value, and H-shareholders will benefit more. </li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK) has received CSRC approval for its merger with Cinda Securities (601059 CH) and Dongxing Securities (601198 CH), but its share price has fallen. 
Concerns about EPS dilution are valid, as CDS' and DXS' 1H26 earnings are weaker than CICC's. However, amid increased industry consolidation, the merger is strategically important.
CICC now sits at 0.57x 12-month forward P/B, just the average since 2021. We expect the merger to enhance book value, and H-shareholders will benefit more. 


CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still "fats" in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   </li>
</ul>


Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still "fats" in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.

Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.

China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   


China Strategy: Screening the H-Share Securities Companies

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans</li>
<li>New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans
New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets


Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

China

Huatai Securities is a leading technology-driven and fully integrated securities firm offering comprehensive financial services. Its core businesses include wealth management, institutional services, investment management, and international business, providing brokerage, investment banking, and asset management solutions. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Huatai Securities (6886 HK)

Much Ado About Nothing -Or Why the China Stimulus Package Doesn’t Matter as Much as Investors Think

Expectation management has been key as China's economic data surprises on the upside, but divergent investor views and Trump's win may lead to...

Rikki Malik

CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

The market has concerns about the merger's EPS dilution for CICC. However, it is strategically important. Also, CICC's 0.57x 12-month forward P/B...

Osbert Tang, CFA

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Much Ado About Nothing -Or Why the China Stimulus Package Doesn’t Matter as Much as Investors Think

​Expectation management has been key as China's economic data surprises on the upside, but divergent investor views and Trump's win may lead to...

Rikki Malik

CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

The market has concerns about the merger's EPS dilution for CICC. However, it is strategically important. Also, CICC's 0.57x 12-month forward P/B...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Strategy: Screening the H-Share Securities Companies

​H-share securities companies still have room for corrections despite recent retreats, with Citic Securities and China Merchants Securities looking...

Osbert Tang, CFA

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

Expectation management has been key as China's economic data surprises on the upside, but divergent investor views and Trump's win may lead to...

H-share securities companies still have room for corrections despite recent retreats, with Citic Securities and China Merchants Securities looking...