Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Monday evening in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session</li>
<li>As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines</li>
<li>Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats</li>
</ul>


On Monday evening in the US, Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session
As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines
Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats


Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong / Equity Bottom-Up

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> (CTII) rallied by 20% over the last 10 trading days but we see good room for more to come.</li>
<li>Our view is that HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing positive outlook.</li>
<li>At 0.45x 12-month forward P/B (1.5SD below average), there is significant potential for re-rating. Its net cash of HK$0.40/share, or 30% of share price, adds further comfort to us.</li>
</ul>


Share price of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) (CTII) rallied by 20% over the last 10 trading days but we see good room for more to come.
Our view is that HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing positive outlook.
At 0.45x 12-month forward P/B (1.5SD below average), there is significant potential for re-rating. Its net cash of HK$0.40/share, or 30% of share price, adds further comfort to us.


China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Here Comes My Turn!

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Outbound continues to improve, March load factor matched pre-Covid level</li>
<li>Appears Chinese tourists are "spreading their wings", travelling farther afield</li>
<li>Trip.com has been best YTD performer in the space; can airlines catch up?</li>
</ul>


Outbound continues to improve, March load factor matched pre-Covid level
Appears Chinese tourists are "spreading their wings", travelling farther afield
Trip.com has been best YTD performer in the space; can airlines catch up?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）</li>
<li>HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） </li>
<li>300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）
HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） 
300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February</li>
<li>Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent</li>
<li>But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

As China emerges from Covid, old challenges remain for Trip.com. After posting solid Q422 results and pointing to signs of a strong recovery, these...

Daniel Hellberg

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Here Comes My Turn!

HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

The recovery in Chinese outbound tourism demand continued in March, but certain data suggest the pace of growth for some regional destinations is...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

As China emerges from Covid, old challenges remain for Trip.com. After posting solid Q422 results and pointing to signs of a strong recovery, these...

Daniel Hellberg

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Here Comes My Turn!

HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

The recovery in Chinese outbound tourism demand continued in March, but certain data suggest the pace of growth for some regional destinations is...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

​Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.