Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border</li>
<li>Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes</li>
<li>Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others</li>
</ul>


USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border
Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes
Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others


US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

<ul>
<li>Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; </li>
<li>The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;</li>
<li>Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. </li>
</ul>


Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; 
The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;
Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. 


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）</li>
<li>HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） </li>
<li>300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）
HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） 
300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

The underdevelopment of China's pension system leads to reliance on the residential property market as social safety net. The headroom of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

The underdevelopment of China's pension system leads to reliance on the residential property market as social safety net. The headroom of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

​Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.