Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BABA/TCOM: China Tourism - Singapore and China to establish mutual 30-day visa exemption (+)</li>
<li>NIO: NIO Auto to spin off its battery manufacturing business for financing (+)</li>
<li>HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism Update - Chinese Embassies abroad temporarily reduce visa fees (+)</li>
</ul>


BABA/TCOM: China Tourism - Singapore and China to establish mutual 30-day visa exemption (+)
NIO: NIO Auto to spin off its battery manufacturing business for financing (+)
HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism Update - Chinese Embassies abroad temporarily reduce visa fees (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/TCOM/NIO/HTHT/ATAT

<ul>
<li>CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)</li>
<li>LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)</li>
<li>ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits</li>
</ul>


CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)
LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)
ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

<ul>
<li>China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.</li>
<li>Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.</li>
</ul>


China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.
Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.
We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.


[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

<ul>
<li>In May, the recovery in outbound travel remained strong, but not surprisingly so</li>
<li>Meanwhile, improvement in domestic travel activity appears to have lost steam</li>
<li>Six months in, we simply do not see any positive surprises in the travel boom</li>
</ul>


In May, the recovery in outbound travel remained strong, but not surprisingly so
Meanwhile, improvement in domestic travel activity appears to have lost steam
Six months in, we simply do not see any positive surprises in the travel boom


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/TCOM/NIO/HTHT/ATAT

China and Singapore agree to a 30-day visa exemption for tourism, NIO Auto plans to separate its battery manufacturing for funding, and Chinese...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

The recovery in outbound travel remained strong in May, and domestic activity also continued to improve, though it appears to be losing some...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/TCOM/NIO/HTHT/ATAT

​China and Singapore agree to a 30-day visa exemption for tourism, NIO Auto plans to separate its battery manufacturing for funding, and Chinese...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

​Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

The recovery in outbound travel remained strong in May, and domestic activity also continued to improve, though it appears to be losing some...

Tracking Traffic

China and Singapore agree to a 30-day visa exemption for tourism, NIO Auto plans to separate its battery manufacturing for funding, and Chinese...

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.