IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.5 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 3.5% to the undisturbed price of JPY8,995 per share (26 February).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Nintendo's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.5 billion secondary offering, Nintendo (7974 JP)’s shares have declined 3.5% to the undisturbed price of JPY8,995 per share (26 February).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Nintendo's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Nissan Motor, Kioxia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Nissan Motor, Kioxia.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Feb): Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 32.7 million shares (37.6 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.8 billion (US$2.1 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>There are four selling shareholders: Nomura Trust and Banking Co, Bank of Kyoto, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA (2432 JP)</a>, and Resona Bank.</li>
<li>The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY100 billion) will mitigate the impact.</li>
</ul>



Nintendo (7974 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 32.7 million shares (37.6 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.8 billion (US$2.1 billion including overallotment).
There are four selling shareholders: Nomura Trust and Banking Co, Bank of Kyoto, DeNA (2432 JP), and Resona Bank.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY100 billion) will mitigate the impact.


Nintendo (7974 JP): A US$2.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>As per media reports <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> (TMC) could be planning to unwind some of its US$19bn cross-shareholding by working with financial institutions.</li>
<li>In our prior series of notes, we had looked at the cross-shareholding across a swathe of companies, the largest of which was Toyota Motors.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a quick look at the possible shareholding unwind.</li>
</ul>


As per media reports Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (TMC) could be planning to unwind some of its US$19bn cross-shareholding by working with financial institutions.
In our prior series of notes, we had looked at the cross-shareholding across a swathe of companies, the largest of which was Toyota Motors.
In this note, we take a quick look at the possible shareholding unwind.


Aequitas: Toyota Motors Cross-Shareholding - Possible US$19bn Unwind, Might Not Be Soon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This morning, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-media-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3191:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP)</a> bought back 61,213,800 shares (29.86% of TSO) in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥3,839 which was a tiny discount to end-Dec25 book value. </li>
<li>79mm shares were offered. Murakami+Dalton - the two major activists - owned 59mm shares. Another 20mm shares were offered in. That is an oddly large excess. Pro-ration ~76-77%.</li>
<li>That <em>may</em> leave activists with 10% of the new shares out. There's a lot of odd and interesting math to think about here. </li>
</ul>


This morning, Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) bought back 61,213,800 shares (29.86% of TSO) in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥3,839 which was a tiny discount to end-Dec25 book value. 
79mm shares were offered. Murakami+Dalton - the two major activists - owned 59mm shares. Another 20mm shares were offered in. That is an oddly large excess. Pro-ration ~76-77%.
That may leave activists with 10% of the new shares out. There's a lot of odd and interesting math to think about here. 


[Japan Activism?] Fuji Media (4676 JP) Buyback/Accretion Done, Now It's All About the Real Estate

Japan

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

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Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)

Nintendo (7974 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering, which was reduced due to the ToSTNeT-3 repurchase, will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to...

Arun George

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Feb): Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Nissan Motor,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nintendo (7974 JP): A US$2.1 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to...

Arun George

Aequitas: Toyota Motors Cross-Shareholding - Possible US$19bn Unwind, Might Not Be Soon

As per media reports Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (TMC) could be planning to unwind some of its US$19bn cross-shareholding by working with financial...

Sumeet Singh

[Japan Activism?] Fuji Media (4676 JP) Buyback/Accretion Done, Now It's All About the Real Estate

Fuji Media HD did a bigly buyback this AM - 30% of TSO. Now it is about selling the real estate and cross-holdings and fixing media. It's cheap...

Travis Lundy

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