IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 1 July, Cooke, the spurned suitor, disclosed that it further increased its stake from 5.40% to 7.60% at an average price of A$4.59 per share. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> Board decided not to engage with Cooke as its third offer of A$4.85 per share did not reflect the fundamental value of the business. </li>
<li>Cooke's recent actions suggest that it will not be easily deterred. We think that it is likely that Cooke returns with another offer which will force the Board to engage.</li>
</ul>


On 1 July, Cooke, the spurned suitor, disclosed that it further increased its stake from 5.40% to 7.60% at an average price of A$4.59 per share. 
The Tassal (TGR AU) Board decided not to engage with Cooke as its third offer of A$4.85 per share did not reflect the fundamental value of the business. 
Cooke's recent actions suggest that it will not be easily deterred. We think that it is likely that Cooke returns with another offer which will force the Board to engage.


Tassal: Cooke Remains a Determined Suitor

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tasmanian salmon producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> has rejected Canadian aquaculture play Cooke Inc's $4.85/share offer - its third proposal and a 42.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Cooke commenced buying shares in Tassal around ten days ago and has built a 5.4% stake. </li>
<li>Tassal considers the Offer does not reflect the fundamental value of the business and has determined not to engage with Cooke.</li>
</ul>


Tasmanian salmon producer Tassal (TGR AU) has rejected Canadian aquaculture play Cooke Inc's $4.85/share offer - its third proposal and a 42.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
Cooke commenced buying shares in Tassal around ten days ago and has built a 5.4% stake. 
Tassal considers the Offer does not reflect the fundamental value of the business and has determined not to engage with Cooke.


<ul>
<li>Glenn Bruce Cooke has acquired a 5.40% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> at an average price of A$3.58. The shares rose 3.1% to close at a 1-year high of A$3.97.</li>
<li>Mr Cooke has shown previous interest in Tassal and its key competitor, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huon-aquaculture-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12348:1" rel="noopener">Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU)</a>. Huon was ultimately acquired by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jbs-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24455:1" rel="noopener">JBS SA (JBSS3 BZ)</a> in November 2021.</li>
<li>Tassal is a better business than Huon due to more stable operations and higher margins. Benchmarking to the Huon transaction multiples implies a floor offer price of A$4.65 per share.  </li>
</ul>


Glenn Bruce Cooke has acquired a 5.40% stake in Tassal (TGR AU) at an average price of A$3.58. The shares rose 3.1% to close at a 1-year high of A$3.97.
Mr Cooke has shown previous interest in Tassal and its key competitor, Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU). Huon was ultimately acquired by JBS SA (JBSS3 BZ) in November 2021.
Tassal is a better business than Huon due to more stable operations and higher margins. Benchmarking to the Huon transaction multiples implies a floor offer price of A$4.65 per share.  


<ul>
<li>There are currently 46  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>Two new deals this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger; and the pre-conditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jin-jiang-capital-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15781:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company (2006 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 46  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. 
Two new deals this week: the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger; and the pre-conditional Offer for Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company (2006 HK).
Keys updates took place for: Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK), and Cp Pokphand (43 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Shanghai Jin Jiang, Shinsei Bank, Chinese Estates, CP Pokphand

<div>
Back on the 26 February this year, Huon <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02347852-3A562617?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a loss of A$95.3mn for the 1H21, including a non-impairment charge of A$113.9mn. In a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02336871-3A560489?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market update</a> earlier that month, Huon said salmon prices had declined ~40% relative to the first six months of 2020. Concurrent with its 1H21 results, Huon said the board has initiated a strategic review to assess the potential for corporate-level transactions for the benefit of shareholders. In a follow-up announcement on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02387935-3A569418?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">25 June</a>, Huon said that strategic review remained ongoing. 
</div>
<div>
The most likely outcome of the review was a take-private transaction, however, an auction process dragged on, with a number of bidders pulling out on account of pricing. 
On the 6 August, Huon <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02404691-3A572314?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a firm Offer, by way of a Scheme, with  Brazil's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jbs-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24455:1" rel="noopener">JBS SA (JBSS3 BZ)</a>. Huon shareholders would receive A$3.85/share in cash. A fully-franked dividend of $0.0125/share - if paid - will be netted.
The cash price was a 61% premium to the last close, before the strategic review was announced on the 26 February. The Bender family with 53% of shares out intend to vote all of their shares in support of the Scheme, in the absence of a superior offer. The Offer also required approval from FIRB.
Apart from FIRB signing off - no small ask given JBS had fallen foul of US regulators recently - this looked like a done deal, with possible completion in November. 
</div>
<div>
But Andrew Forrest's family fund Tattarang had other plans and promptly upped its stake to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02405676-3A572494?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">18.51%</a> on the 10 August from 7.33% at the time of the SID announcement. That current stake all but blocks a Scheme. 
Not to be outdone,  JBS announced a parallel takeover bid on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02406953-3A572757?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 August</a>. This second Offer is conditional on 50.1% acceptances from shareholders.  With the Bender's stake, that Offer is effectively done - barring FIRB rejection. The Bender family also entered in a pre-bid acceptance agreement for 19.9% of shares out. 
It was unclear at the time whether Forrest was trying to block JBS in Huon or just looking for a better price.
In various media advertisements last Friday, Forrest <a href="https://www.harvestroad.com/its-time-to-commit-a-public-challenge-to-jbs-from-dr-andrew-forrest-ao/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called on</a> JBS to commit to the same principles as Tattarang’s agri-food business, Harvest Road, and its beef processing company, Harvey Beef.
<div>
<blockquote>
For a small expense and through good management at Harvey Beef, we have established a clear No Pain No Fear framework in the critical stages of cattle processing as part of our ambition to exceed animal welfare standards and create a path for others to follow.
This means our customers don’t have to compromise their values when they choose to buy our products.
Animals provide humans with a valuable source of protein, the least we can do is respect this by ensuring they are treated with the utmost care.
As the world’s biggest protein producer, JBS can rise to this same standard.
</blockquote>
Not altogether surprisingly, JBS took umbrage with this challenge, saying it already adheres to high standards in its animal handling. As did Huon. 
Huon <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02409974-3A573426?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this morning...   that it has been...
<blockquote>
uncompromising in its commitment to the highest standards of animal husbandry, biosecurity, environmental management, and sustainable farming practices. Huon remains the only seafood producer in Australia to achieve RSPCA Approved Farming certification and firmly believes its sustainable salmon farming practices can be benchmarked against the best standards in the world.
</blockquote>
</div>
Huon also added Tattarang had earlier expressed interest in Huon and submitted a non-binding and conditional indicative offer. Tattarang was invited to participate further in the strategic review process but declined to do so. Tattarang’s non-binding and conditional indicative offer was at a material discount to JBS’s $3.85 offer.
Oddly, Huon is trading almost at terms. Given the non-negligible risk FIRB blocks the deal, I would avoid shares here.
More below the fold. 

</div>


Back on the 26 February this year, Huon announced a loss of A$95.3mn for the 1H21, including a non-impairment charge of A$113.9mn. In a market update earlier that month, Huon said salmon prices had declined ~40% relative to the first six months of 2020. Concurrent with its 1H21 results, Huon said the board has initiated a strategic review to assess the potential for corporate-level transactions for the benefit of shareholders. In a follow-up announcement on the 25 June, Huon said that strategic review remained ongoing. 


The most likely outcome of the review was a take-private transaction, however, an auction process dragged on, with a number of bidders pulling out on account of pricing. 
On the 6 August, Huon announced a firm Offer, by way of a Scheme, with  Brazil's JBS SA (JBSS3 BZ). Huon shareholders would receive A$3.85/share in cash. A fully-franked dividend of $0.0125/share - if paid - will be netted.
The cash price was a 61% premium to the last close, before the strategic review was announced on the 26 February. The Bender family with 53% of shares out intend to vote all of their shares in support of the Scheme, in the absence of a superior offer. The Offer also required approval from FIRB.
Apart from FIRB signing off - no small ask given JBS had fallen foul of US regulators recently - this looked like a done deal, with possible completion in November. 


But Andrew Forrest's family fund Tattarang had other plans and promptly upped its stake to 18.51% on the 10 August from 7.33% at the time of the SID announcement. That current stake all but blocks a Scheme. 
Not to be outdone,  JBS announced a parallel takeover bid on the 13 August. This second Offer is conditional on 50.1% acceptances from shareholders.  With the Bender's stake, that Offer is effectively done - barring FIRB rejection. The Bender family also entered in a pre-bid acceptance agreement for 19.9% of shares out. 
It was unclear at the time whether Forrest was trying to block JBS in Huon or just looking for a better price.
In various media advertisements last Friday, Forrest called on JBS to commit to the same principles as Tattarang’s agri-food business, Harvest Road, and its beef processing company, Harvey Beef.


For a small expense and through good management at Harvey Beef, we have established a clear No Pain No Fear framework in the critical stages of cattle processing as part of our ambition to exceed animal welfare standards and create a path for others to follow.
This means our customers don’t have to compromise their values when they choose to buy our products.
Animals provide humans with a valuable source of protein, the least we can do is respect this by ensuring they are treated with the utmost care.
As the world’s biggest protein producer, JBS can rise to this same standard.

Not altogether surprisingly, JBS took umbrage with this challenge, saying it already adheres to high standards in its animal handling. As did Huon. 
Huon said this morning...   that it has been...

uncompromising in its commitment to the highest standards of animal husbandry, biosecurity, environmental management, and sustainable farming practices. Huon remains the only seafood producer in Australia to achieve RSPCA Approved Farming certification and firmly believes its sustainable salmon farming practices can be benchmarked against the best standards in the world.


Huon also added Tattarang had earlier expressed interest in Huon and submitted a non-binding and conditional indicative offer. Tattarang was invited to participate further in the strategic review process but declined to do so. Tattarang’s non-binding and conditional indicative offer was at a material discount to JBS’s $3.85 offer.
Oddly, Huon is trading almost at terms. Given the non-negligible risk FIRB blocks the deal, I would avoid shares here.
More below the fold. 



Australia

Huon Aquaculture Group Ltd supplies fish products. The Company offers cutlets, portions, sashimi and sushi, whole salmon, smoked salmon, gravadlax, aswell as provides health and cooking programs.

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Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU)

Tassal: Cooke Remains a Determined Suitor

Shares are trading in line with the rejected offer price. We think that it is likely that Cooke returns with another offer which will force the...

Arun George

Tassal And Cooke In Salmon Stand-Off

Tassal Group is trading at $4.51/share as I type, or a 7.5% gross spread to terms. I'd be buying here. Cooke is not done yet.

David Blennerhassett

Tassal Is in the Crosshairs of a Suitor

Mr Cooke, who was previously interested in Huon, has acquired a 5.40% stake. Benchmarking to the Huon transaction multiples implies a floor offer...

Arun George

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Shanghai Jin Jiang, Shinsei Bank, Chinese Estates, CP Pokphand

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Huon Ag (Huo AU): Twiggy Went To Market

Trading at a gross/annualised return of 0.2%/1.2%. I doubt there is a bump here. I'd be inclined to avoid this transaction. I think FIRB approval...

David Blennerhassett

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