Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Full-year guidance cut amid 1H25 miss. HCM’s oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$144mn in 1H25 (-15% YoY), only 36% of our prior full-year estimate.</li><li>The miss was driven by declines in HCM’s China revenue of key products: fruquintinib (-27%), savolitinib (-32%), and surufatinib (-50%), impacted by regorafenib and TAS-102 generic competition, regorafenib VBP, the launch of new NRDL-listed MET TKIs, and internal sales team transitions.</li><li>Although fruquintinib's overseas in-market sales grew 25% YoY to US$163mn, HCM recognized US$43mn revenue from fruquintinib, nearly flat YoY. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Full-year guidance cut amid 1H25 miss. HCM’s oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$144mn in 1H25 (-15% YoY), only 36% of our prior full-year estimate.The miss was driven by declines in HCM’s China revenue of key products: fruquintinib (-27%), savolitinib (-32%), and surufatinib (-50%), impacted by regorafenib and TAS-102 generic competition, regorafenib VBP, the launch of new NRDL-listed MET TKIs, and internal sales team transitions.Although fruquintinib's overseas in-market sales grew 25% YoY to US$163mn, HCM recognized US$43mn revenue from fruquintinib, nearly flat YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hutchmed (13 HK) - China Product Sales Under Pressure Amid Competition

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

United Laboratories / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-united-laboratories-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16074:1" rel="noopener">The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited (3933 HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$262m from a primary placement. </li>
<li>The company intends to use about 60% of the proceeds to build production capacity and expand its international business, with the rest to be used for R&amp;D purposes.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited (3933 HK) is looking to raise up to US$262m from a primary placement. 
The company intends to use about 60% of the proceeds to build production capacity and expand its international business, with the rest to be used for R&amp;D purposes.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


United Lab Placement - Industry Momentum Strong, Although Stock Has Run-Up Quite a Bit

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ascentage Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.</li>
<li>Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.</li>
<li>The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  </li>
</ul>


Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Cosco Shipping.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Cosco Shipping.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 16th): Biggest Weekly Outflows in a Year

Hong Kong

Hutchison Whampoa is an investment holding company with diverse global operations in ports and related services, property and hotels, retail, infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. It operates port and container terminals, develops real estate, and provides mobile telecommunications services. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and traces its roots back to 1862.

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Hutchison Whampoa (13 HK)

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

Hutchmed (13 HK) - China Product Sales Under Pressure Amid Competition

Full-year guidance cut amid 1H25 miss. HCM’s oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$144mn in 1H25 (-15% YoY), only 36% of our prior full...

CMB International

United Lab Placement - Industry Momentum Strong, Although Stock Has Run-Up Quite a Bit

United Laboratories International Holdings is looking to raise up to US$262m from a primary placement. In this note, we will talk about the...

Akshat Shah

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

The Placing price of HK$68.6 has priced in successful licensing deal of APG-2575. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation. Biotech sector...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 16th): Biggest Weekly Outflows in a Year

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CCB, BOC, CMB, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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