External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kelun-Biotech: Promising Ph2 results of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC.</li><li>SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.</li><li>SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view. SKB264+A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Kelun-Biotech: Promising Ph2 results of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC.SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view. SKB264+A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.</li>
<li>The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.</li>
<li>There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.
The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.
There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize HEC CJ Pharma in the form of merger by absorption with conditions. After privatization, CJ Pharma will be delisted from the Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>Sunshine Lake Pharma's pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years, and is completely lagging behind the average speed of innovative drug development in China.</li>
<li>Due to “outdated” pipeline and lack of prospects, even if CJ Pharma is merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, valuation performance of the new entity would be disappointing in the future.</li>
</ul>


Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize HEC CJ Pharma in the form of merger by absorption with conditions. After privatization, CJ Pharma will be delisted from the Stock Exchange.
Sunshine Lake Pharma's pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years, and is completely lagging behind the average speed of innovative drug development in China.
Due to “outdated” pipeline and lack of prospects, even if CJ Pharma is merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, valuation performance of the new entity would be disappointing in the future.


HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)'s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma - Almost No Investment Value

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;</li>
<li>PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;</li>
<li>Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. </li>
</ul>


C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 


[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.</li>
<li>2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.</li>
<li>Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 - US$1,800 million is a good place to long. </li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.
2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.
Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 - US$1,800 million is a good place to long. 


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - High Growth Is Expected from 2024 to 2026

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED (China) Limited develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company offers drugs for oncology and autoimmune diseases treatment. HUTCHMED (China) markets its products worldwide.

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Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189

CMB International

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)'s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma - Almost No Investment Value

Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize and merge with CJ Pharma.However, with an outdated pipeline, the new entity's valuation performance will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute