Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Investors' concerns over increasingly expanding regulatory restrictions and the potential market intervention led to a rout of Chinese tech and education stocks over the last several trading sessions. The select 9 Chinese tech stocks I follow collectively lost USD320 billion in value over 20 July to 27 July.  While some of the regulatory risks were known from March 2021, ramifications of the potential value-destroying restrictions on the education companies, termination of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)'s</a> exclusive rights, and the suspension of new user registration for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s Wechat spook the market. </p><p>Tencent's market cap has declined 19% during the seven-day period, which cannot be fully explained by the potential value lost from the recently announced regulatory measures, in my view.  Back in April (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-fintech-risk-is-lurking" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50512" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK): Fintech Risk Is Lurking</a>) I pointed out that Tencent shares could be overvalued by 20% on fintech risk alone.  The shares are down nearly 30% since then. <strong>I now believe the shares could be undervalued by 10%, notwithstanding the undefined regulatory risks ahead.  </strong>Having said that, catching a falling knife is not for the faint-hearted. </p><p>These stocks rebounded on the US Wednesday trading session, possibly reflecting the sentiment "enough is enough." Bloomberg reported that the securities regulator assured select investment bankers that the education policies are not to be for other industries.     </p><p><strong>In this report, I summarize the announced regulatory events this year to date and share my thoughts on why the market may be over discounting Tencent's value</strong> by looking at the potential value impact of Tencent's fintech value (a reiteration from the April report) and the impact of the value decline of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> and Tencent Music.          </p>

Investors' concerns over increasingly expanding regulatory restrictions and the potential market intervention led to a rout of Chinese tech and education stocks over the last several trading sessions. The select 9 Chinese tech stocks I follow collectively lost USD320 billion in value over 20 July to 27 July.  While some of the regulatory risks were known from March 2021, ramifications of the potential value-destroying restrictions on the education companies, termination of Tencent Music (TME US)'s exclusive rights, and the suspension of new user registration for Tencent (700 HK)'s Wechat spook the market. Tencent's market cap has declined 19% during the seven-day period, which cannot be fully explained by the potential value lost from the recently announced regulatory measures, in my view.  Back in April (see Tencent (700 HK): Fintech Risk Is Lurking) I pointed out that Tencent shares could be overvalued by 20% on fintech risk alone.  The shares are down nearly 30% since then. I now believe the shares could be undervalued by 10%, notwithstanding the undefined regulatory risks ahead.  Having said that, catching a falling knife is not for the faint-hearted. These stocks rebounded on the US Wednesday trading session, possibly reflecting the sentiment "enough is enough." Bloomberg reported that the securities regulator assured select investment bankers that the education policies are not to be for other industries.     In this report, I summarize the announced regulatory events this year to date and share my thoughts on why the market may be over discounting Tencent's value by looking at the potential value impact of Tencent's fintech value (a reiteration from the April report) and the impact of the value decline of DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) and Tencent Music.          

Tencent (700 HK): When to Catch a Falling Knife

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

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<p>Recently the Chinese regulator National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) announced the July batch of approvals for domestic games. </p>
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<p>In this insight, we will have a close look at the trend of domestic game approval for both Tencent and its key competitor, Netease. We will also have a review of domestic games approved in 2021 YTD. </p>
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<p>We are of the view that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1" rel="noopener">Netease Inc (Adr) (NTES US)</a> has done better than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> in terms of games approved. </p>
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Recently the Chinese regulator National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) announced the July batch of approvals for domestic games. 


In this insight, we will have a close look at the trend of domestic game approval for both Tencent and its key competitor, Netease. We will also have a review of domestic games approved in 2021 YTD. 


We are of the view that Netease Inc (Adr) (NTES US) has done better than Tencent Holdings (700 HK) in terms of games approved. 



Tencent/NetEase: July Game Approval Analysis

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are reportedly partnering to launch a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service through Apple Pay, according to Bloomberg .  The service will reportedly allow users to spread payments of their purchases across four interest-free payments every two weeks, or across several months with interest.</p>

Headline Developments Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are reportedly partnering to launch a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service through Apple Pay, according to Bloomberg .  The service will reportedly allow users to spread payments of their purchases across four interest-free payments every two weeks, or across several months with interest.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>Nearly a year after Chinese search-engine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a>  <a href="http://ir.sogou.com/2020-07-27-Sogou-Announces-Receipt-of-a-Preliminary-Non-Binding-Proposal-to-Acquire-the-Company" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a preliminary non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, and around 9.5 months since <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115257193&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-09-29&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entering</a> into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction, the Offer has been granted unconditional approval by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). </p>
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<p>This Merger is in the form of a short-form merger as per section 233(7) of the <a href="https://www.cima.ky/upimages/commonfiles/CompaniesLaw2020Revision_1579811065.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Companies Law of the Cayman Islands</a> - there is no vote. With SAMR sign-off in the bag, this deal should become effective very shortly, and accordingly, is trading tight to terms.</p>
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<p>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a> will pocket ~US$1.2bn from the merger via its 33.8% equity stake in Sogou, versus its current market cap of US$933mn. <em>And that is after yesterday's 28% jump in price.</em></p>
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<p>More below the fold.</p>
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Nearly a year after Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US)  announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from Tencent (700 HK), and around 9.5 months since entering into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction, the Offer has been granted unconditional approval by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). 


This Merger is in the form of a short-form merger as per section 233(7) of the Companies Law of the Cayman Islands - there is no vote. With SAMR sign-off in the bag, this deal should become effective very shortly, and accordingly, is trading tight to terms.


Separately, Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) will pocket ~US$1.2bn from the merger via its 33.8% equity stake in Sogou, versus its current market cap of US$933mn. And that is after yesterday's 28% jump in price.



More below the fold.



Tencent/Sogou: And That's (Finally) A Wrap

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>With Beijing making the rejection of the proposed Huya-Douyu merger official on the 10th, Douyu stock was sold down 8.8% overnight while Huya was down just 1.7% taking the Huya/Douyu ratio to just shy of 3.0, up a full 50% in just over a month.</p>

With Beijing making the rejection of the proposed Huya-Douyu merger official on the 10th, Douyu stock was sold down 8.8% overnight while Huya was down just 1.7% taking the Huya/Douyu ratio to just shy of 3.0, up a full 50% in just over a month.

Huya Vs. Douyu - Will Tencent Sell Its Douyu Stake?

United States

HUYA Inc. operates as a game live streaming platform. The Company offers interactive video broadcast services including e-sports, music, reality show, entertainment genres, talent shows, and anime and outdoor activities. HUYA serves customers in China.

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HUYA (HUYA US)

Tencent (700 HK): When to Catch a Falling Knife

Chinese tech stocks are reeling from the latest regulatory announcements. Tencent fell 19% in 7 days. Is the time ripe to catch a falling knife?...

Mitchell Kim

Tencent/NetEase: July Game Approval Analysis

We analysed the games approved by regulator in July and note that Tencent is tracking behind NetEase in terms of pace of obtaining approved.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #40

Headline Developments Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are reportedly partnering to launch a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service through Apple

Granite Bay Capital

Tencent/Sogou: And That's (Finally) A Wrap

The gross spread to terms is only 1%, but this is a done deal. I think this can become effective in a matter of weeks. Sohu's NAV discount is at...

David Blennerhassett

Huya Vs. Douyu - Will Tencent Sell Its Douyu Stake?

As the Huya/Douyu ratio rockets upwards we consider whether there is still more upside from a potential sale of Douyu shares by Tencent.

Mio Kato

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