Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Will Semiconductor   Shan / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 9 May, Netmarble announced that it plans to sell 2.6% stake in HYBE for 219.9 billion won. </li>
<li>The transaction is based on PRS (price return swap) basis. Previous to this deal, Netmarble sold 2.5 million shares (about 6%) of HYBE shares in November 2023. </li>
<li>We continue to remain negative on HYBE including on this deal involving Netmarble's plan to sell additional 2.6% stake in HYBE.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 9 May, Netmarble announced that it plans to sell 2.6% stake in HYBE for 219.9 billion won. 
The transaction is based on PRS (price return swap) basis. Previous to this deal, Netmarble sold 2.5 million shares (about 6%) of HYBE shares in November 2023. 
We continue to remain negative on HYBE including on this deal involving Netmarble's plan to sell additional 2.6% stake in HYBE.


Netmarble Plans to Sell 2.6% Stake in HYBE Through PRS (Price Return Swap).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A nasty power struggle between ADOR CEO Min Hee-Jin and HYBE has erupted which is likely to continue to negatively impact HYBE's share price in the next several months.</li>
<li>ADOR CEO Min Hee-Jin owns an 18% stake in ADOR which was founded in 2021. HYBE owns the controlling 80% stake in ADOR.</li>
<li>Given the nasty fight between ADOR and HYBE, it is likely that the two companies (including ADOR's CEO Min Hee-Jin) are likely to part their ways.</li>
</ul>


A nasty power struggle between ADOR CEO Min Hee-Jin and HYBE has erupted which is likely to continue to negatively impact HYBE's share price in the next several months.
ADOR CEO Min Hee-Jin owns an 18% stake in ADOR which was founded in 2021. HYBE owns the controlling 80% stake in ADOR.
Given the nasty fight between ADOR and HYBE, it is likely that the two companies (including ADOR's CEO Min Hee-Jin) are likely to part their ways.


A Nasty Power Struggle Between ADOR CEO and HYBE

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>KRX limits individual stock weight to 20% in ETFs with few constituents. KRX confirms working on it, with an official announcement expected soon.</li>
<li>Excludes index ETFs like KOSPI 200. KRX hasn't finalized criteria for constituent number but expected to involve fewer than 30 stocks.</li>
<li>This could open new passive trading opportunities. Sector ETF cap at 30%, large AUM ones offer noteworthy trading potential.</li>
</ul>


KRX limits individual stock weight to 20% in ETFs with few constituents. KRX confirms working on it, with an official announcement expected soon.
Excludes index ETFs like KOSPI 200. KRX hasn't finalized criteria for constituent number but expected to involve fewer than 30 stocks.
This could open new passive trading opportunities. Sector ETF cap at 30%, large AUM ones offer noteworthy trading potential.


KRX Imposes a 20% Cap on Weight Ceiling in Sector ETFs with Few Constituents

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

South Korea

HYBE Co., Ltd. operates as an entertainment company. The Company provides music production, album distribution, entertainers management, publicity, planning, training, and other services. HYBE also makes television shows.

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HYBE (352820 KS)

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Netmarble Plans to Sell 2.6% Stake in HYBE Through PRS (Price Return Swap).

After the market close on 9 May, Netmarble announced that it plans to sell 2.6% stake in HYBE for 219.9 billion won. We continue to remain negative...

Douglas Kim

A Nasty Power Struggle Between ADOR CEO and HYBE

Given the nasty fight between ADOR and HYBE, it is likely that they (including ADOR's CEO Min Hee-Jin) are likely to part their ways, although the...

Douglas Kim

KRX Imposes a 20% Cap on Weight Ceiling in Sector ETFs with Few Constituents

This post details what I confirmed with KRX regarding its new rule of imposing a 20% cap on the weight ceiling for the sector ETFs having few...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

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