HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Distinct Healthcare Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.</li>
<li>Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.</li>
<li>Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.</li>
</ul>


Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.
Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.
Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.


Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings-  Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the HSCEI INDEX and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.


Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

Bayzed Health Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bayzed's business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.</li>
<li>The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.</li>
<li>Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Bayzed's business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.
The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.
Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group - Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.</li>
<li>However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.</li>
<li>P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.</li>
</ul>


According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.
However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.
P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

<ul>
<li>The business model for general hospitals is not good (e.g. heavy assets, challenging operations, low profits, difficult to replicate and expand nationwide), which has never been a profitable business.</li>
<li>BenQ’s profitability is not attractive if compared with for-profit specialized hospitals. The “benefit chain” of hospitals is actually very complicated, which makes it challenging to attract/retain good medical talents.</li>
<li>BenQ’s overall revenue growth could slow down in the future. Its profit margin is also not attractive. It would be difficult for BenQ to achieve a high valuation after IPO. </li>
</ul>


The business model for general hospitals is not good (e.g. heavy assets, challenging operations, low profits, difficult to replicate and expand nationwide), which has never been a profitable business.
BenQ’s profitability is not attractive if compared with for-profit specialized hospitals. The “benefit chain” of hospitals is actually very complicated, which makes it challenging to attract/retain good medical talents.
BenQ’s overall revenue growth could slow down in the future. Its profit margin is also not attractive. It would be difficult for BenQ to achieve a high valuation after IPO. 


Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding - Profitability Will Be Disappointing Due To "Flaws" In Business Model

China

Hygeia Healthcare is a prominent oncology healthcare group in China, dedicated to enhancing the accessibility and affordability of cancer treatment services. The company operates a network of oncology hospitals, providing comprehensive services from screening and diagnosis to various treatment modalities like chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and radiotherapy. It also offers radiotherapy consulting and equipment licensing. Hygeia Healthcare was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Hygeia Healthcare (6078 HK)

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

We expect 7 HK listed stocks to be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The stocks have underperformed the HSCEI and their peers as...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group - Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

Bayzed's weak profit margin makes us question its future profitability and operation and management ability of its hospitals. Nationwide expansion...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Hygeia achieved gratifying results in 24Q1, but progress of some projects has been delayed, making high growth in 2024 uncertain. Any future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding - Profitability Will Be Disappointing Due To "Flaws" In Business Model

General hospitals like BenQ face challenges due to their business model, with low profits and difficulty attracting/retaining talent, leading to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

​Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

We expect 7 HK listed stocks to be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The stocks have underperformed the HSCEI and their peers as...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group - Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

Bayzed's weak profit margin makes us question its future profitability and operation and management ability of its hospitals. Nationwide expansion...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Hygeia achieved gratifying results in 24Q1, but progress of some projects has been delayed, making high growth in 2024 uncertain. Any future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding - Profitability Will Be Disappointing Due To "Flaws" In Business Model

​General hospitals like BenQ face challenges due to their business model, with low profits and difficulty attracting/retaining talent, leading to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

General hospitals like BenQ face challenges due to their business model, with low profits and difficulty attracting/retaining talent, leading to...