Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This note examines the price behaviour of stocks added to and deleted from the STAR50 Index across seven rebalance events (June 2024 through March 2026).</li>
<li>We test whether market participants systematically front-run index changes during the announcement-to-implementation window, and whether that front-running creates predictable post-implementation reversals.</li>
<li>The analysis uses free-float shares as a percentage of average daily volume (FF/ADV) as the primary proxy for expected flow impact.</li>
</ul>


This note examines the price behaviour of stocks added to and deleted from the STAR50 Index across seven rebalance events (June 2024 through March 2026).
We test whether market participants systematically front-run index changes during the announcement-to-implementation window, and whether that front-running creates predictable post-implementation reversals.
The analysis uses free-float shares as a percentage of average daily volume (FF/ADV) as the primary proxy for expected flow impact.


STAR50 Index Rebalance (Quantitative Event Study): Historical Patterns & Current Event Analysis

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro, MONTAGE TECHNOLOGY, JINKO SOLAR, MGI TECH.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro, MONTAGE TECHNOLOGY, JINKO SOLAR, MGI TECH.


STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Feb): CAMBRICON, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, 10 changes for the STAR100 Index and 2 changes for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 9% for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 27.6bn (US$4bn). One-way turnover for the STAR100 Index is 9.2%.</li>
<li>With the National Team redeeming ETFs, the adds have outperformed the deletes for all the indices and that could continue ahead of implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX), 10 changes for the STAR100 Index and 2 changes for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 9% for the STAR50 INDEX resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 27.6bn (US$4bn). One-way turnover for the STAR100 Index is 9.2%.
With the National Team redeeming ETFs, the adds have outperformed the deletes for all the indices and that could continue ahead of implementation of the changes.


STAR50/STAR100/STAR Chip Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes as Trade Nears US$6bn

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Moore Threads Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The STAR 50 index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming March 2026 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The STAR 50 index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
The STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming March 2026 index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar26: Final Expectations; ~US$3.8bn Total One-Way

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Montage Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.</li>
<li>We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rambus-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7214:1" rel="noopener">Rambus (RMBS US)</a>, the third-largest player globally. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.</li>
</ul>


As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, Montage Technology (6809 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.
We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over Rambus (RMBS US), the third-largest player globally. 

This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.


Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

China

Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes computer components. The Company produces high end processors, deep computing processors, accelerators, calculator chips, and other related products. Hygon Information Technology markets its products worldwide.

Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)

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Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance (Quantitative Event Study): Historical Patterns & Current Event Analysis

STAR50 Mar-2026 rebalance: event study across 7 rebalances reveals front-running begins earlier than commonly assumed. Current cycle shows notable...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Feb): CAMBRICON, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50/STAR100/STAR Chip Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes as Trade Nears US$6bn

There are 3 changes for the STAR50, 10 changes for the STAR100, 2 changes for the STAR Chip in March. The adds have outperformed the deletes across...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar26: Final Expectations; ~US$3.8bn Total One-Way

We estimate the one-way flow for STAR 50 to be roughly US$3.2bn in March 2026. Multiple names have more than US$200mn of index buying/selling. Some...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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STAR50 Index Rebalance (Quantitative Event Study): Historical Patterns & Current Event Analysis

STAR50 Mar-2026 rebalance: event study across 7 rebalances reveals front-running begins earlier than commonly assumed. Current cycle shows notable...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Feb): CAMBRICON, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, TRINA SOLAR, TRANSSION, Advanced Micro,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50/STAR100/STAR Chip Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes as Trade Nears US$6bn

There are 3 changes for the STAR50, 10 changes for the STAR100, 2 changes for the STAR Chip in March. The adds have outperformed the deletes across...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar26: Final Expectations; ~US$3.8bn Total One-Way

We estimate the one-way flow for STAR 50 to be roughly US$3.2bn in March 2026. Multiple names have more than US$200mn of index buying/selling. Some...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

​Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...