Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We should focus on the weight changes of the existing constituents. For this, two names really stand out: Kakao Pay (+0.44x ADTV) and LG Corp (+0.37x ADTV).</li>
<li>It is because Kakao Pay and LG Corp will undergo an increase in their float rate in the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, and these up-weights will also affect this sector index.</li>
<li>Their combined inflow size (KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSPI 200 IT) will be 1.41x and 1.16x ADTVs. This will be the most substantial, except for Kakao Bank and the new additions.</li>
</ul>


We should focus on the weight changes of the existing constituents. For this, two names really stand out: Kakao Pay (+0.44x ADTV) and LG Corp (+0.37x ADTV).
It is because Kakao Pay and LG Corp will undergo an increase in their float rate in the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, and these up-weights will also affect this sector index.
Their combined inflow size (KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSPI 200 IT) will be 1.41x and 1.16x ADTVs. This will be the most substantial, except for Kakao Bank and the new additions.


KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index Rebalancing Flow: Watch Kakao Pay & LG Corp

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

In this insight, we discuss the stocks that could get included or excluded in the November 2021 KOSPI 200 rebalance. We highlight 15 stocks that could get included and 10 stocks that could get excluded in the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalance.<div class="content-highlight">
This rebalance of the KOSPI 200 strategy is a type of momentum-driven strategy. The 15 stocks that we think could get included in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance have generated strong share price performances (up 55% on average in the past six months). 
On the other hand, the 10 stocks which we think could get excluded in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance (the bottom 5% of KOSPI 200 index in terms of market cap) have done much worse in terms of their share price performance (down 6.1% on average in the past six months). 
</div>

In this insight, we discuss the stocks that could get included or excluded in the November 2021 KOSPI 200 rebalance. We highlight 15 stocks that could get included and 10 stocks that could get excluded in the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalance.
This rebalance of the KOSPI 200 strategy is a type of momentum-driven strategy. The 15 stocks that we think could get included in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance have generated strong share price performances (up 55% on average in the past six months). 
On the other hand, the 10 stocks which we think could get excluded in the next KOSPI 200 rebalance (the bottom 5% of KOSPI 200 index in terms of market cap) have done much worse in terms of their share price performance (down 6.1% on average in the past six months). 


Potential Changes of KOSPI 200 Index Components in the November 2021 Rebalance

What's going on at Hyundai Mobis (and Glovis)?Once again, the same old rumor emerged in the local market yesterday.<div class="content-highlight"><h2>Chung Eui-sun will sell 10% of his Glovis stake in block deals. Then, he will use the proceeds to buy Mobis shares.</h2></div>Why do we keep hearing this rumor?For this, we need to know the Korea FTC's intra-group transaction restrictions.If the owner family's shareholding in a chaebol affiliate exceeds the threshold, the affiliate will become subject to the intra-group transaction restrictions.A company under the intra-group transaction restrictions isn't allowed to exceed intra-group deals for more than ₩20B (or 12% of total sales).Currently, Hyundai Glovis is the problem within the Hyundai Motor Group. The intra-group deals account for 69.8% (₩9.8T) of the total revenue last year (₩14.5T).The shareholding threshold is 30% for listed companies and 20% for unlisted companies.Glovis has been able to escape the restrictions as the Chung family (Chung Mong-koo and Chung Eui-sun combined) have slightly less than 30%.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Glovis"}'>Hyundai Glovis</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%"}'>%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value (₩B)"}'>Value (₩B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun"}'>Chung Eui-sun</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8732290}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>8,732,290</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2329}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>23.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1563.34125}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">1,563.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Den Norske Amerikalinje AS"}'>Den Norske Amerikalinje AS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4125000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>4,125,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.11}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>11.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":738.375}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">738.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Mong-koo"}'>Chung Mong-koo</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2517701}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>2,517,701</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0671}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>6.71%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":450.40875000000005}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">450.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Motor"}'>Hyundai Motor</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1830939}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>1,830,939</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0488}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.88%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":327.57}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">327.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"HM CMK Foundation"}'>HM CMK Foundation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1671018}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>1,671,018</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0446}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.46%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":299.3775}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">299.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo"}'>Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11249991}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]+R[-5]C[0]">11,249,991</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2999}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>29.99%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2013.07875}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">2,013.1</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>But starting next year, the threshold for listed companies will also become 20%.This is exactly why we keep hearing this rumor because Chung Eui-sun has to reduce his stake by 10%p so that the family-owned combined stake falls below 20%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/625/original/image?1617927547" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199625"></figure>

What's going on at Hyundai Mobis (and Glovis)?Once again, the same old rumor emerged in the local market yesterday.Chung Eui-sun will sell 10% of his Glovis stake in block deals. Then, he will use the proceeds to buy Mobis shares.Why do we keep hearing this rumor?For this, we need to know the Korea FTC's intra-group transaction restrictions.If the owner family's shareholding in a chaebol affiliate exceeds the threshold, the affiliate will become subject to the intra-group transaction restrictions.A company under the intra-group transaction restrictions isn't allowed to exceed intra-group deals for more than ₩20B (or 12% of total sales).Currently, Hyundai Glovis is the problem within the Hyundai Motor Group. The intra-group deals account for 69.8% (₩9.8T) of the total revenue last year (₩14.5T).The shareholding threshold is 30% for listed companies and 20% for unlisted companies.Glovis has been able to escape the restrictions as the Chung family (Chung Mong-koo and Chung Eui-sun combined) have slightly less than 30%.








Hyundai Glovis
Shares
%
Value (₩B)


Chung Eui-sun
8,732,290
23.29%
1,563.3


Den Norske Amerikalinje AS
4,125,000
11.00%
738.4


Chung Mong-koo
2,517,701
6.71%
450.4


Hyundai Motor
1,830,939
4.88%
327.6


HM CMK Foundation
1,671,018
4.46%
299.4


Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo
11,249,991
29.99%
2,013.1

Source: FnGuide

But starting next year, the threshold for listed companies will also become 20%.This is exactly why we keep hearing this rumor because Chung Eui-sun has to reduce his stake by 10%p so that the family-owned combined stake falls below 20%.

Glovis Block Deals by Chung & Buy Mobis Shares: Unlikely to Happen

Cross Asset Strategy

The Korea Exchange announced its KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances today. There were 17 new additions and 17 deletions for KOSDAQ150. Most of the stocks that were expected to be included in KOSDAQ 150 were officially included in the rebalance. However there were a few surprises. For example <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanos-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16796:1" rel="noopener">Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS),</a>which was one of the stocks that was expected to be included in KOSDAQ150, did not get included in this indext this time. On the other hand, the following stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sang-a-frontec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20692:1" rel="noopener">Sang A Frontec (089980 KS)</a>, Novarex (194700 KS(, CIS (222080 KS), MedPacto (215980 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koreacenter-com-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28329:1" rel="noopener">Koreacenter.com Co Ltd (290510 KS)</a>, and Soulbrain (357780 KS) which were not on the top of the lists of getting selected into the KOSDAQ150 index by the locals, were formally selected be part of the new KOSDAQ150 inclusions.  The Korea Exchange also made changes to the KRX300 index. Although the KRX300 index is not currently as important as KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 indices, it is increasingly gaining in importance among the local institutional investors. The KRX300 had 33 new additions and 35 deletions.

The Korea Exchange announced its KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances today. There were 17 new additions and 17 deletions for KOSDAQ150. Most of the stocks that were expected to be included in KOSDAQ 150 were officially included in the rebalance. However there were a few surprises. For example Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS),which was one of the stocks that was expected to be included in KOSDAQ150, did not get included in this indext this time. On the other hand, the following stocks including Sang A Frontec (089980 KS), Novarex (194700 KS(, CIS (222080 KS), MedPacto (215980 KS), Koreacenter.com Co Ltd (290510 KS), and Soulbrain (357780 KS) which were not on the top of the lists of getting selected into the KOSDAQ150 index by the locals, were formally selected be part of the new KOSDAQ150 inclusions.  The Korea Exchange also made changes to the KRX300 index. Although the KRX300 index is not currently as important as KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 indices, it is increasingly gaining in importance among the local institutional investors. The KRX300 had 33 new additions and 35 deletions. 

KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 Indices Rebalances (Overlapping Additions & Deletions)

Equity Capital Markets

In this insight, we provide a valuation analysis of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saltlux" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29011:1" rel="noopener">Saltlux (SLTX KS)</a>. In addition, we provide additional fundamental details of the company, competitors, as well as the market outlook for AI &amp; Big Data services.In our view, Saltlux has one of the best technologies in the AI/Big Data sector in Korea. In terms of business model, it is closer to Mindslab and Daumsoft which are privately held. The fact that Saltlux has larger sales than these two competitors is impressive. We think there is likely to be a big acquisition premium on Saltlux going forward.<div class="content-highlight">In terms of valuation multiples, we think that a 10x P/S, using 2019 sales (which is 10% premium to Laon People) is reasonable for Saltlux, which would suggest an implied market cap of 184 billion won or 36,000 won, which is 20% above the high end of the IPO price of 30,000 won. As such, we have a positive view of the Saltlux IPO. We are also adding Saltlux to our model portfolio. </div>

In this insight, we provide a valuation analysis of Saltlux (SLTX KS). In addition, we provide additional fundamental details of the company, competitors, as well as the market outlook for AI &amp; Big Data services.In our view, Saltlux has one of the best technologies in the AI/Big Data sector in Korea. In terms of business model, it is closer to Mindslab and Daumsoft which are privately held. The fact that Saltlux has larger sales than these two competitors is impressive. We think there is likely to be a big acquisition premium on Saltlux going forward.In terms of valuation multiples, we think that a 10x P/S, using 2019 sales (which is 10% premium to Laon People) is reasonable for Saltlux, which would suggest an implied market cap of 184 billion won or 36,000 won, which is 20% above the high end of the IPO price of 30,000 won. As such, we have a positive view of the Saltlux IPO. We are also adding Saltlux to our model portfolio. 

South Korea

Hyundai Autoever Corp. provides information technology services. The Company offers system integration, system management, information system development, and other services. Hyundai Autoever offers services worldwide.

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Hyundai Autoever (307950 KS)

KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index Rebalancing Flow: Watch Kakao Pay & LG Corp

This post highlights the two names that will see the most substantial passive inflow on the rebalancing trading day, June 9, for the KOSPI 200 IT...

Sanghyun Park

Potential Changes of KOSPI 200 Index Components in the November 2021 Rebalance

In this insight, we discuss stocks that could get included or excluded in the November 2021 KOSPI 200 rebalance. We highlight 15 stocks that could...

Douglas Kim

Glovis Block Deals by Chung & Buy Mobis Shares: Unlikely to Happen

This post examines the Glovis block deals rumor by the Chung family and explains why it is unlikely to happen given the HMG restructuring dynamics.

Sanghyun Park

KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 Indices Rebalances (Overlapping Additions & Deletions)

We highlight the KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances. There are some interesting new names, especially among those that are over lapping in...

Douglas Kim

Saltlux IPO Valuation Analysis

In this insight, we provide a valuation analysis of Saltlux (SLTX KS). In addition, we provide additional fundamental details of the company,...

Douglas Kim

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