Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX has downgraded our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new fair value for 2026E at Bt13.61 (previous 12M FWD FV at Bt12.30), based on a required return of 8.66% (down from 9.1%), reflecting a target PER of 11.5x.</li><li>Following the recent share price rally, the valuation metrics indicate that the current price exceeds our fundamental valuation, despite an expected earnings recovery in 2026-27E from the low base in 2025E.</li><li>ITC’s share price has continued to rise in response to progress in tariff negotiations; however, the potential impact from tariff enforcement that could affect the company’s profitability remains a key risk to monitor.</li></ul>

KTX has downgraded our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new fair value for 2026E at Bt13.61 (previous 12M FWD FV at Bt12.30), based on a required return of 8.66% (down from 9.1%), reflecting a target PER of 11.5x.Following the recent share price rally, the valuation metrics indicate that the current price exceeds our fundamental valuation, despite an expected earnings recovery in 2026-27E from the low base in 2025E.ITC’s share price has continued to rise in response to progress in tariff negotiations; however, the potential impact from tariff enforcement that could affect the company’s profitability remains a key risk to monitor.

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 2Q25 Earnings

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec25: Capping Flows in September and Index Changes in December

<ul><li>KTX maintains an Outperform rating, with a revised fair value of Bt12.30, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 9.1%, reflecting a target PER of 11.0x.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the current share price offers attractive upside of 13% to the fair value, alongside strong earnings growth relative to peers and a neutral tactical view.</li><li>The stock is significantly undervalued. As of 1Q25, ITC had a net cash position of Bt13.3bn, compared to its current market capitalization of Bt32.7bn — implying an enterprise value (EV) of Bt19.4bn.</li></ul>

KTX maintains an Outperform rating, with a revised fair value of Bt12.30, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 9.1%, reflecting a target PER of 11.0x.The valuation metrics indicate that the current share price offers attractive upside of 13% to the fair value, alongside strong earnings growth relative to peers and a neutral tactical view.The stock is significantly undervalued. As of 1Q25, ITC had a net cash position of Bt13.3bn, compared to its current market capitalization of Bt32.7bn — implying an enterprise value (EV) of Bt19.4bn.

I-Tail Corporation - 2Q25E Earnings to Recede YoY but Recover QoQ

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 27th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info Service, Ptt, Central Pattana, Cp Foods.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 27th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info Service, Ptt, Central Pattana, Cp Foods.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info Service, Ptt

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Delta Electronics (Thailand) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

Thailand

i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited manufactures, imports, and distributes pet food products, including wet and dry food for cats and dogs, treats, and kidney-friendly options. The company sells its products under brands such as Bellotta, Marvo, ChangeTer, Calico Bay, and Paramount. It was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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i-Tail Corporation (ITC TB)

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 2Q25 Earnings

KTX has downgraded our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new fair value for 2026E at Bt13.61 (previous 12M FWD FV at Bt12.30), based on a...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec25: Capping Flows in September and Index Changes in December

There are currently two potential ADDs and two potential DELs which are close to triggering index changes in December 2025. Relative price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

I-Tail Corporation - 2Q25E Earnings to Recede YoY but Recover QoQ

KTX maintains an Outperform rating, with a revised fair value of Bt12.30, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 9.1%,...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info Service, Ptt

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Scb X, Advanced Info...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes, plus DELTA capping. Impact on the adds is bigger and positioning appears smaller. The deletes are down a lot and there could...

Brian Freitas

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